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#1: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-11 08:21:03 by Myk Cameron

The AQB International Soccer ratings have been updated to 11 July
2006.

Congratulations to Italy on their penalty shootout victory over France
in the World Cup final in Berlin (the game ended 1-1 after extra
time). Italy remain on top of the ratings, and because the game
counted as a draw for ratings purposes, France moved ahead of Brazil
into second. Germany won the third-place playoff in Stuttgart by 3-1
over Portugal. Germany moved up three places to eighth, while Portugal
fell one place to ninth. Thanks to all teams for a great tournament!


The main ratings list at 11 July 2006 is below. Rankings changes shown
are year-to-date.

1 (+2) Italy 1365.92
2 (+2) France 1348.82
3 (-2) Brazil 1348.12
4 (+1) England 1323.66
5 (+1) Argentina 1319.68
6 (+1) Spain 1304.41
7 (+1) Netherlands 1295.81
8 (+2) Germany 1279.59
9 (+3) Portugal 1277.42
10 (-8) Czech Republic 1266.93

11 (-2) Denmark 1263.66
12 (+5) Uruguay 1243.69
13 (+11) Switzerland 1225.55
14 (+6) Australia 1223.19
15 (+11) Cote d'Ivoire 1211.23
16 (+2) Romania 1210.34
17 (+11) Nigeria 1210.13
18 (-2) Ireland 1208.09
19 (+17) Colombia 1195.54
20 (+12) Ukraine 1195.44

21 (-2) Mexico 1194.82
22 (-9) Sweden 1190.82
23 (-9) Croatia 1187.51
24 (+1) Greece 1184.97
25 (-2) Iran 1183.69
26 (-11) Turkey 1180.70
27 (-5) Paraguay 1179.93
28 (+18) Chile 1177.95
29 (+9) Bulgaria 1177.03
30 (-19) Poland 1174.92

31 Cameroon 1172.31
32 (+3) Egypt 1171.15
33 (-12) USA 1167.76
34 (+10) South Korea 1154.11
35 (+17) Ghana 1152.15
36 (-3) Serbia & Mont. 1147.74
37 Israel 1145.99
38 (+2) Russia 1145.93
39 (-12) Japan 1144.96
40 (+3) Belgium 1144.54

41 (+8) Slovakia 1143.67
42 (-1) Honduras 1140.68
43 (-9) Senegal 1139.26
44 (-14) Tunisia 1132.38
45 (-3) Ecuador 1128.87
46 (-17) Norway 1124.37
47 (+3) Scotland 1124.07
48 (-1) Peru 1120.51
49 (-10) Morocco 1118.55
50 (+18) Guinea 1111.50

51 (-3) Jamaica 1099.63
52 (+12) Mali 1084.96
53 Bosnia-Herz. 1083.55
54 (+4) Angola 1083.05
55 (+14) Canada 1082.95
56 (+7) Oman 1081.00
57 (+10) Wales 1080.40
58 (-13) Costa Rica 1075.50
59 (+6) Slovenia 1070.83
60 (+23) Qatar 1062.13

61 (-4) Zambia 1061.35
62 (-7) Finland 1060.98
63 (+18) Macedonia 1057.77
64 (+24) UAE 1056.38
65 (-9) Belarus 1052.92
66 (-5) Zimbabwe 1052.65
67 (+6) Hungary 1051.72
68 (+28) Lithuania 1043.94
69 (-3) Uzbekistan 1040.26
70 (-16) China 1039.22

71 (-9) Trinidad & Tob. 1039.00
72 (-2) Guatemala 1036.76
73 (-13) Austria 1033.49
74 (-3) Venezuela 1029.56
75 (-24) Togo 1028.26
76 (+6) Dem. Rep. Congo 1025.70
77 (-1) New Zealand 1025.08
78 Bolivia 1023.58
79 Cuba 1020.00
80 Latvia 1014.04

81 (-22) Saudi Arabia 1013.42
82 (-8) Iraq 1009.15
83 (+1) Ethiopia 1008.17
84 (+1) Solomon Islands 1006.86
85 (-10) South Africa 1006.46
86 (-14) Libya 998.57
87 (+3) Northern Ire. 996.46
88 (+4) Fiji 994.03
89 (-12) Albania 992.89
90 (-1) Cyprus 990.48

91 (-5) Iceland 988.32
92 (-1) Georgia 986.93
93 North Korea 983.02
94 Haiti 982.18
95 Syria 981.42
96 (+1) Kuwait 978.41
97 (+4) Algeria 977.34
98 Estonia 973.05
99 (+1) Panama 968.13
100(-1) Moldova 963.56


For more information on the ratings system, or to view my other
sports ratings, visit my website <a href="http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/" target="_blank">http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/</a>


Best regards,
Myk Cameron
AQB Sports Ratings

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#2: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-11 17:19:10 by unknown

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#3: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-11 21:45:16 by Elko Tchernev

anders t wrote:
&gt; Quoting Myk Cameron in rec.sport.soccer:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; 11 (-2) Denmark 1263.66
&gt;&gt; 12 (+5) Uruguay 1243.69
&gt;&gt; 16 (+2) Romania 1210.34
&gt;&gt; 17 (+11) Nigeria 1210.13
&gt;&gt; 18 (-2) Ireland 1208.09
&gt;&gt; 19 (+17) Colombia 1195.54
&gt;
&gt;&gt; 22 (-9) Sweden 1190.82
&gt;
&gt; This simply doesn't &quot;add up&quot;...
&gt;
Yes it does:

&gt; 22 (-9) Sweden 1190.82
&gt; 23 (-9) Croatia 1187.51
&gt; 29 (+9) Bulgaria 1177.03
&gt; 67 (+6) Hungary 1051.72
&gt; 91 (-5) Iceland 988.32
&gt; 100+ Malta ??????
&gt;

What more could you want? ;)

Overall, except for England, very intuitively &quot;correct&quot; ranking. I
like it better than the FIFA one (duh), or ELO.

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#4: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-11 22:37:12 by unknown

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#5: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-11 22:50:03 by ruud

On Tue, 11 Jul 2006 22:37:12 +0200, anders t
&lt;<a href="mailto:anthu_001&#64;No" target="_blank">anthu_001&#64;No</a>€SPaM€_hotmail.com&gt; wrote:

[...]

&gt;The -only- team that I can agree -might- be above Sweden after the fact of
&gt;the WC results is Romania. But that's still iffy because neither the Czechs
&gt;nor the Dutch were throroughly convincing. If Sweden had got Switzerland (a
&gt;group winner) instead of a hot home team, we could (not saying would!) have
&gt;been a last 8 team. I'm not even mentioning Ukraine.

You're discussing one tournament though. Any decent rankings system
has to take into account at least 4 years of previous results, that
includes all the qualifying for the world cup. It's a long-term
ranking, not just based on one tournament.

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#6: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-11 23:15:31 by unknown

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#7: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-12 00:04:40 by ruud

On Tue, 11 Jul 2006 23:15:31 +0200, anders t
&lt;<a href="mailto:anthu_001&#64;No" target="_blank">anthu_001&#64;No</a>€SPaM€_hotmail.com&gt; wrote:

&gt;Quoting ruud in rec.sport.soccer:
&gt;
&gt;&gt;You're discussing one tournament though. Any decent rankings system
&gt;&gt;has to take into account at least 4 years of previous results, that
&gt;&gt;includes all the qualifying for the world cup. It's a long-term
&gt;&gt;ranking, not just based on one tournament.
&gt;
&gt;WC Last 16 2002 (ahead of Argentina)
&gt;EC Last 8 2004 (ahead of Italy)
&gt;WC Last 16 2006
&gt;
&gt;The above of course implies doing fairly well in the 20+ qualification
&gt;games meantime.
&gt;
&gt;More power to real tournament achievements!
&gt;
&gt;Btw: Elo makes it look more realistic.

iirc Sweden's results were awful leading into the world cup. I
remember a 3-0 loss to Ireland for example. OK I take your point that
most were friendlies and when it matters Sweden's results were OK. You
might have beaten Paraguay, but you had a 0-0 draw against Trinidad
also. That's got to hurt the rankings.

--

RIP Syd Barrett 1946-2006

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#8: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-12 10:30:45 by Myk Cameron

On Tue, 11 Jul 2006 22:04:40 GMT, ruud &lt;<a href="mailto:no_email&#64;hotmail.scum" target="_blank">no_email&#64;hotmail.scum</a>&gt; wrote:

&gt;On Tue, 11 Jul 2006 23:15:31 +0200, anders t
&gt;&lt;<a href="mailto:anthu_001&#64;No" target="_blank">anthu_001&#64;No</a>€SPaM€_hotmail.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt;Quoting ruud in rec.sport.soccer:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;You're discussing one tournament though. Any decent rankings system
&gt;&gt;&gt;has to take into account at least 4 years of previous results, that
&gt;&gt;&gt;includes all the qualifying for the world cup. It's a long-term
&gt;&gt;&gt;ranking, not just based on one tournament.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;WC Last 16 2002 (ahead of Argentina)
&gt;&gt;EC Last 8 2004 (ahead of Italy)
&gt;&gt;WC Last 16 2006
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;The above of course implies doing fairly well in the 20+ qualification
&gt;&gt;games meantime.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;More power to real tournament achievements!
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;Btw: Elo makes it look more realistic.
&gt;
&gt;iirc Sweden's results were awful leading into the world cup. I
&gt;remember a 3-0 loss to Ireland for example. OK I take your point that
&gt;most were friendlies and when it matters Sweden's results were OK. You
&gt;might have beaten Paraguay, but you had a 0-0 draw against Trinidad
&gt;also. That's got to hurt the rankings.

Sweden's poor run of results leading up to the cup is certainly a
factor. Drawing 0-0 win a team ranked outside the top 70 doesn't help
much either (actually it's worth about half of a loss against a team
ranked the same as Sweden). Sweden's results from the World Cup:

v Trinidad &amp; Tobago (ranked 71st) drew 0-0
v Paraguay (27th) won 1-0
v England (4th) drew 2-2
v Germany (8th, hosts) lost 0-2

Not exactly stellar - a win and a draw against teams ranked below
them, and a loss and a draw against teams ranked above them. I don't
see that as evidence that they really deserve to be rated higher.


Myk

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#9: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-12 16:42:44 by unknown

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#10: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-17 19:33:12 by Myk Cameron

On Wed, 12 Jul 2006 16:42:44 +0200, anders t
&lt;<a href="mailto:anthu_001&#64;No" target="_blank">anthu_001&#64;No</a>€SPaM€_hotmail.com&gt; wrote:

&gt;Myk, how about running your algorithm using data only from WCs,
&gt;Confederation championships, and their respective qualifying tournaments
&gt;(including replays and playoffs)? I'm tempted to allow the Confederations'
&gt;Cup, too...

Sorry for the delay. Catching up on heaps of work that has been left
for weeks...

Ratings based on inclusion of only World Cup, World Cup qualifying,
Olympic Games (1928 and earlier), Confederations Cup, Confederation
championships (e.g. Euro) and their qualifying (though I couldn't be
bothered working out which UNCAF and Caribbean Cups were also CONCACAF
Cup qualifiers so I left them out) [the last number in brackets is
their ranking using the full data set]:

1 France 1293.78 [2]
2 Brazil 1281.32 [3]
3 Italy 1279.74 [1]
4 Argentina 1263.23 [5]
5 England 1244.95 [4]
6 Cameroon 1232.40 [31]
7 Netherlands 1227.21 [7]
8 Portugal 1226.89 [9]
9 Nigeria 1224.65 [17]
10 Spain 1220.62 [6]

11 Germany 1220.14 [8]
12 Japan 1210.60 [39]
13 Iran 1183.48 [25]
14 Australia 1182.65 [14]
15 Czech Republic 1175.10 [10]
16 Turkey 1173.56 [26]
17 Sweden 1172.74 [22]
18 Mexico 1169.13 [21]
19 Cote d'Ivoire 1168.00 [15]
20 Croatia 1160.32 [23]

....

21 Uruguay 1159.53 [12]
25 Denmark 1150.28 [11]
35 Romania 1123.35 [16]
40 Colombia 1097.95 [19]
41 Ireland 1097.23 [18]


This ratings specification really helps those that are traditionally
strong within a weak confederation, e.g. Cameroon, Nigeria, Japan,
Iran.


Myk

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#11: Re: AQB International Ratings (11 July 2006)

Posted on 2006-07-23 09:40:34 by unknown

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