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#1: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-12 15:19:32 by garscosi

An Elias Sports factoid:

"[S]ince 1980, eight World Series have gone the distance and the home
team won Game 7 in all eight of those series."

<a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848</a>


Another factoid that wasn't mentioned:

From 1955 through 1979, fifteen World Series went to a Game 7. Road
teams won 12.

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#2: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-12 17:16:02 by no

&gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; An Elias Sports factoid:
&gt;
&gt; &quot;[S]ince 1980, eight World Series have gone the distance and the
&gt; home team won Game 7 in all eight of those series.&quot;
&gt;
&gt; <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848</a>
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Another factoid that wasn't mentioned:
&gt;
&gt; From 1955 through 1979, fifteen World Series went to a Game 7.
&gt; Road teams won 12.

What should we glean from these facts?

Report this message

#3: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-12 17:28:36 by kahn

In &lt;Sm8tg.10402$<a href="mailto:6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga" target="_blank">6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga</a>&gt; &quot;TheDave©&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:no&#64;no.com" target="_blank">no&#64;no.com</a>&gt; writes:

&gt;&gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;&gt; An Elias Sports factoid:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &quot;[S]ince 1980, eight World Series have gone the distance and the
&gt;&gt; home team won Game 7 in all eight of those series.&quot;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848</a>
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Another factoid that wasn't mentioned:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; From 1955 through 1979, fifteen World Series went to a Game 7.
&gt;&gt; Road teams won 12.

&gt;What should we glean from these facts?

That there's no evidence that home field advantage matters much.
Of course the starting date 1955 might have been chosen strategically too.
It would be preferable to look at all the data or choose an arbitrary start
date.
--
Jim
New York, NY
(Please remove &quot;nospam.&quot; to get my e-mail address)
<a href="http://www.panix.com/~kahn" target="_blank">http://www.panix.com/~kahn</a>

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#4: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-12 18:32:10 by garscosi

In article &lt;e934f4$36t$<a href="mailto:1&#64;reader2.panix.com" target="_blank">1&#64;reader2.panix.com</a>&gt;,
<a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a> (James Kahn) wrote:

&gt; In &lt;Sm8tg.10402$<a href="mailto:6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga" target="_blank">6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga</a>&gt; &quot;TheDave©&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:no&#64;no.com" target="_blank">no&#64;no.com</a>&gt; writes:


&gt; &gt;&gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; &gt;&gt; An Elias Sports factoid:
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; &quot;[S]ince 1980, eight World Series have gone the distance and the
&gt; &gt;&gt; home team won Game 7 in all eight of those series.&quot;
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848</a>
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; Another factoid that wasn't mentioned:
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; From 1955 through 1979, fifteen World Series went to a Game 7.
&gt; &gt;&gt; Road teams won 12.


&gt; &gt;What should we glean from these facts?
&gt;
&gt; That there's no evidence that home field advantage matters much.
&gt; Of course the starting date 1955 might have been chosen strategically too.


It was, representing the same number of World Series (25) as the
period 1980 through 2005.



&gt; It would be preferable to look at all the data or choose an arbitrary start
&gt; date.


Home teams are 17-16 in World Series Game 7s since the 2-3-2 format
was used in 1924.

Interestingly, over the same period, teams with Home Field Advantage
are 27-19 in World Series which _haven't_ gone to a Game 7.

Report this message

#5: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-12 22:40:11 by Seapig

Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; In article &lt;e934f4$36t$<a href="mailto:1&#64;reader2.panix.com" target="_blank">1&#64;reader2.panix.com</a>&gt;,
&gt; <a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a> (James Kahn) wrote:
&gt;
&gt; &gt; In &lt;Sm8tg.10402$<a href="mailto:6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga" target="_blank">6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga</a>&gt; &quot;TheDave=A9&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:no&#64;no.com" target="_blank">no&#64;no.com</a>&gt; writes:
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; An Elias Sports factoid:
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; &quot;[S]ince 1980, eight World Series have gone the distance and the
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; home team won Game 7 in all eight of those series.&quot;
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=3D2516848" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=3D2516848</a>
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; Another factoid that wasn't mentioned:
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; From 1955 through 1979, fifteen World Series went to a Game 7.
&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; Road teams won 12.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt;What should we glean from these facts?
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; That there's no evidence that home field advantage matters much.
&gt; &gt; Of course the starting date 1955 might have been chosen strategically t=
oo.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; It was, representing the same number of World Series (25) as the
&gt; period 1980 through 2005.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; &gt; It would be preferable to look at all the data or choose an arbitrary s=
tart
&gt; &gt; date.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Home teams are 17-16 in World Series Game 7s since the 2-3-2 format
&gt; was used in 1924.
&gt;
&gt; Interestingly, over the same period, teams with Home Field Advantage
&gt; are 27-19 in World Series which _haven't_ gone to a Game 7.

I wonder if that's just random fluctuation, or if it indicates that
there is some significant advantage to opening at home.

It's probably too early now, but in the long run those numbers could be
skewed by the fact that the stronger league is more likely to win both
the ASG and the WS.

Report this message

#6: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-12 23:30:39 by kahn

In &lt;<a href="mailto:1152736811.680067.252100&#64;35g2000cwc.googlegroups.com" target="_blank">1152736811.680067.252100&#64;35g2000cwc.googlegroups.com</a>&gt; &quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; writes:


&gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Home teams are 17-16 in World Series Game 7s since the 2-3-2 format
&gt;&gt; was used in 1924.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Interestingly, over the same period, teams with Home Field Advantage
&gt;&gt; are 27-19 in World Series which _haven't_ gone to a Game 7.

&gt;I wonder if that's just random fluctuation, or if it indicates that
&gt;there is some significant advantage to opening at home.

That seems unlikely, given that with the 2-3-2 format, that team
never has an advantage (in the sense of having more games at home)
in any possible decisive game (that is, games 4-7) until game 7.

I would assume it is random. Another thing to look at would just be
to tally up individual WS game outcomes by home team. In other words,
what is the percentage of games won by the home team?

&gt;It's probably too early now, but in the long run those numbers could be
&gt;skewed by the fact that the stronger league is more likely to win both
&gt;the ASG and the WS.

Hopefully this travesty of giving the WS home field advantage to the
team from the league that wins the ASG will disappear soon, along
with interleague play and the DH.

--
Jim
New York, NY
(Please remove &quot;nospam.&quot; to get my e-mail address)
<a href="http://www.panix.com/~kahn" target="_blank">http://www.panix.com/~kahn</a>

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#7: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-12 23:34:28 by Paul

On 12 Jul 2006 13:40:11 -0700, &quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; wrote:

&gt;
&gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;&gt; In article &lt;e934f4$36t$<a href="mailto:1&#64;reader2.panix.com" target="_blank">1&#64;reader2.panix.com</a>&gt;,
&gt;&gt; <a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a> (James Kahn) wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; In &lt;Sm8tg.10402$<a href="mailto:6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga" target="_blank">6z2.4543&#64;newsfe16.lga</a>&gt; &quot;TheDave©&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:no&#64;no.com" target="_blank">no&#64;no.com</a>&gt; writes:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; An Elias Sports factoid:
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; &quot;[S]ince 1980, eight World Series have gone the distance and the
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; home team won Game 7 in all eight of those series.&quot;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2516848</a>
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; Another factoid that wasn't mentioned:
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; From 1955 through 1979, fifteen World Series went to a Game 7.
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;&gt; Road teams won 12.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; &gt;What should we glean from these facts?
&gt;&gt; &gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; That there's no evidence that home field advantage matters much.
&gt;&gt; &gt; Of course the starting date 1955 might have been chosen strategically too.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; It was, representing the same number of World Series (25) as the
&gt;&gt; period 1980 through 2005.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; It would be preferable to look at all the data or choose an arbitrary start
&gt;&gt; &gt; date.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Home teams are 17-16 in World Series Game 7s since the 2-3-2 format
&gt;&gt; was used in 1924.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Interestingly, over the same period, teams with Home Field Advantage
&gt;&gt; are 27-19 in World Series which _haven't_ gone to a Game 7.
&gt;
&gt;I wonder if that's just random fluctuation, or if it indicates that
&gt;there is some significant advantage to opening at home.
&gt;
&gt;It's probably too early now, but in the long run those numbers could be
&gt;skewed by the fact that the stronger league is more likely to win both
&gt;the ASG and the WS.


I heard a sound bite yesterday that was made prior to the game. In it
Phil Garner says that after last year he knows the importance of home
field advantage in the World Series. Of course his Astro's were swept
in four games, 2 in Houston, 2 in Chicago.

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#8: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-13 01:34:01 by Seapig

James Kahn wrote:
&gt; In &lt;<a href="mailto:1152736811.680067.252100&#64;35g2000cwc.googlegroups.com" target="_blank">1152736811.680067.252100&#64;35g2000cwc.googlegroups.com</a>&gt; &quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; writes:
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; &gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; Home teams are 17-16 in World Series Game 7s since the 2-3-2 format
&gt; &gt;&gt; was used in 1924.
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; Interestingly, over the same period, teams with Home Field Advantage
&gt; &gt;&gt; are 27-19 in World Series which _haven't_ gone to a Game 7.
&gt;
&gt; &gt;I wonder if that's just random fluctuation, or if it indicates that
&gt; &gt;there is some significant advantage to opening at home.
&gt;
&gt; That seems unlikely, given that with the 2-3-2 format, that team
&gt; never has an advantage (in the sense of having more games at home)
&gt; in any possible decisive game (that is, games 4-7) until game 7.

I don't buy into it either, but in the past, when I've argued that home
field advantage in the World Series isn't that big a deal, some others
have suggested that there's an advantage to opening at home (by putting
the other team in an early hole, I guess). Looking at those numbers, I
have to at least consider that there might be something to it.

&gt; I would assume it is random. Another thing to look at would just be
&gt; to tally up individual WS game outcomes by home team. In other words,
&gt; what is the percentage of games won by the home team?
&gt;
&gt; &gt;It's probably too early now, but in the long run those numbers could be
&gt; &gt;skewed by the fact that the stronger league is more likely to win both
&gt; &gt;the ASG and the WS.
&gt;
&gt; Hopefully this travesty of giving the WS home field advantage to the
&gt; team from the league that wins the ASG will disappear soon, along
&gt; with interleague play and the DH.

As long as we have interleague play, I can live with the other two
&quot;travesties.&quot; I like that there is still some difference between the
two leagues, and that there is still some reason to care about the
All-Star Game.

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#9: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-13 01:38:55 by Seapig

PaulMofAtl wrote:

&gt; I heard a sound bite yesterday that was made prior to the game. In it
&gt; Phil Garner says that after last year he knows the importance of home
&gt; field advantage in the World Series. Of course his Astro's were swept
&gt; in four games, 2 in Houston, 2 in Chicago.

Since they tied home field to the All Star Game, we've had two sweeps,
and one six-game series that was won by the team without HFA. So,
despite all the hype, it hasn't even come close to being a decisive
factor.

I think a big reason that so many people don't like having the All-Star
Game decide HFA is, ironically, that MLB and Fox have done too good a
job of selling it. They've got everybody believing that HFA is a huge
factor in deciding who wins the Series. If it really was as important
as they want us to believe it is, I wouldn't want the All-Star Game
deciding it either.

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#10: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-13 01:45:21 by Seapig

George Grapman wrote:
&gt; If the two teams split the first two games the advantage is negated
&gt; and the other team winds up with home field advantage for what is now a
&gt; best of 5 series.
&gt; If you open on the road you simply have to plat .500 on the road and
&gt; have a winning record at home.

That's part of why I don't buy into the notion that there's an inherent
advantage in opening at home (this also goes into the argument over
whether the 2-2-1 format in best-of-five series is an improvement over
the old 2-3 format - I don't think it is). It's easier to split two
games on the road than it is to win two at home.

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#11: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-13 01:56:22 by dannysprung

&gt; What should we glean from these facts?


The Road team(s) had momentum thru 1980, then lost it. Now the home
teams have it...

Danny

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#12: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-13 15:46:15 by artyw2

PaulMofAtl wrote:
&gt;
&gt; I heard a sound bite yesterday that was made prior to the game. In it
&gt; Phil Garner says that after last year he knows the importance of home
&gt; field advantage in the World Series. Of course his Astro's were swept
&gt; in four games, 2 in Houston, 2 in Chicago.

But he played on the winning team for the last team to win game 7 of
the WS on the road.

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#13: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 01:43:50 by garscosi

In article &lt;e93plv$r20$<a href="mailto:1&#64;reader2.panix.com" target="_blank">1&#64;reader2.panix.com</a>&gt;,
<a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a> (James Kahn) wrote:

&gt; In &lt;<a href="mailto:1152736811.680067.252100&#64;35g2000cwc.googlegroups.com" target="_blank">1152736811.680067.252100&#64;35g2000cwc.googlegroups.com</a>&gt; &quot;Seapig&quot;
&gt; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; writes:

&gt; &gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:

&gt; &gt;&gt; Home teams are 17-16 in World Series Game 7s since the 2-3-2 format
&gt; &gt;&gt; was used in 1924.
&gt; &gt;&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; Interestingly, over the same period, teams with Home Field Advantage
&gt; &gt;&gt; are 27-19 in World Series which _haven't_ gone to a Game 7.


&gt; &gt;I wonder if that's just random fluctuation, or if it indicates that
&gt; &gt;there is some significant advantage to opening at home.


&gt; That seems unlikely, given that with the 2-3-2 format, that team
&gt; never has an advantage (in the sense of having more games at home)
&gt; in any possible decisive game (that is, games 4-7) until game 7.
&gt;
&gt; I would assume it is random. Another thing to look at would just be
&gt; to tally up individual WS game outcomes by home team. In other words,
&gt; what is the percentage of games won by the home team?


From 1924 through 2005, home teams are 260-193 .574 in the World
Series.



&gt; Hopefully this travesty of giving the WS home field advantage to the
&gt; team from the league that wins the ASG will disappear soon, along
&gt; with interleague play and the DH.


From your keyboard to God's monitor.

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#14: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 04:43:37 by Seapig

Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; In article &lt;e93plv$r20$<a href="mailto:1&#64;reader2.panix.com" target="_blank">1&#64;reader2.panix.com</a>&gt;,
&gt; <a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a> (James Kahn) wrote:

&gt; &gt; I would assume it is random. Another thing to look at would just be
&gt; &gt; to tally up individual WS game outcomes by home team. In other words,
&gt; &gt; what is the percentage of games won by the home team?
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; From 1924 through 2005, home teams are 260-193 .574 in the World
&gt; Series.

Could somebody (who remembers more high school math than I do)
translate that into how often the team with home field advantage should
be expected to win the series?

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#15: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 05:08:03 by Tarkus

On 7/13/2006 7:43:37 PM, Seapig wrote:

&gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;&gt; In article &lt;e93plv$r20$<a href="mailto:1&#64;reader2.panix.com" target="_blank">1&#64;reader2.panix.com</a>&gt;,
&gt;&gt; <a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a> (James Kahn) wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; From 1924 through 2005, home teams are 260-193 .574 in the World
&gt;&gt; Series.
&gt;
&gt; Could somebody (who remembers more high school math than I do)
&gt; translate that into how often the team with home field advantage
&gt; should be expected to win the series?

57.4%. HTH.
--
&quot;Professional baseball is on the wane. Salaries must come down or the
interest of the public must be increased in some way. If one or the
other does not happen, bankruptcy stares every team in the face.&quot;
- Chicago White Stockings owner Albert Spalding, 1881

Now playing: &quot;Dream Theater - Trial of Tears&quot;

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#16: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 06:18:36 by kahn

In &lt;<a href="mailto:1152845017.040955.192340&#64;h48g2000cwc.googlegroups.com" target="_blank">1152845017.040955.192340&#64;h48g2000cwc.googlegroups.com</a>&gt; &quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; writes:


&gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;&gt; In article &lt;e93plv$r20$<a href="mailto:1&#64;reader2.panix.com" target="_blank">1&#64;reader2.panix.com</a>&gt;,
&gt;&gt; <a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a> (James Kahn) wrote:

&gt;&gt; &gt; I would assume it is random. Another thing to look at would just be
&gt;&gt; &gt; to tally up individual WS game outcomes by home team. In other words,
&gt;&gt; &gt; what is the percentage of games won by the home team?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; From 1924 through 2005, home teams are 260-193 .574 in the World
&gt;&gt; Series.

&gt;Could somebody (who remembers more high school math than I do)
&gt;translate that into how often the team with home field advantage should
&gt;be expected to win the series?

There's no simple answer because it depends on how evenly
matched the teams are. In any case, I don't have time to do
the computations, but I'm pretty confident the answer would be closer
to 50% than to 57.4%, except perhaps if the teams are very close
to evenly matched. Conditional on getting to a 7th game the answer
would be 57.4%. But conditional on *not* going 7 games, the odds
would slightly favor the other team (since it would
have the advantage in a 5 game series), and the odds of going 7 games
are on the order of 50-50 (higher if the teams are equally matched).
--
Jim
New York, NY
(Please remove &quot;nospam.&quot; to get my e-mail address)
<a href="http://www.panix.com/~kahn" target="_blank">http://www.panix.com/~kahn</a>

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#17: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 06:23:10 by raj

&quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; writes:

&gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:

&gt;&gt; From 1924 through 2005, home teams are 260-193 .574 in the World
&gt;&gt; Series.

&gt;Could somebody (who remembers more high school math than I do)
&gt;translate that into how often the team with home field advantage should
&gt;be expected to win the series?

I get that a game W% of .574 should give a Series W% of about .523. Each
team has an identical chance of sweeping the series, the visiting team is
more likely to win in exactly 5 games, and the home team is more likely to
win in exactly 6 or 7 games.

The &quot;win in exactly 6 games&quot; thing surprised me at first, since the number
of home games for each team is equal I expected their chances of victory
to be equal. A bit of reflection and a closer look at the numbers makes
it make a bit more sense. It turns out that the teams have an equal
chance of winning in 6 or fewer games, but the numbers aren't distributed
equally. The visiting team's advantage in winning in exactly 5 games-
when they actually have the HOF- is balanced out by the home team's
advantage in winning in exactly 6 games.

Note that this same general logic applies no matter what the specific
single game home-field advantage is; the two teams have identical chances
of winning before a decisive game 7. That means that even surprisingly
large single-game HFAs don't make a huge difference in the Series HFA.
Even with a .700 HFA, the team with the advantage still wins &quot;just&quot; .570
of the time. That's because 65% of the games are wrapped up without going
to a winner-take-all game, and those 65% are evenly split. The same
general logic would also apply to a 2-2-1-1-1 system; in that case it's
the home team that has the advantage in game 5 and the road team in game
6, but it balances out either way.

--
Roger Moore | Master of Meaningless Trivia | (<a href="mailto:raj&#64;alumni.caltech.edu" target="_blank">raj&#64;alumni.caltech.edu</a>)
There's no point in questioning authority if you don't listen to the answers.

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#18: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 12:43:56 by Roger Manyard

Roger Moore &lt;<a href="mailto:raj&#64;alumnae.caltech.edu" target="_blank">raj&#64;alumnae.caltech.edu</a>&gt; trolled:

&gt; I get that a game W% of .574 should give a Series W% of about
&gt; .523.

While that measurement applies to the past, it says nothing about
odd for this year's WS.

cordially, as always,

rm

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#19: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 18:03:53 by kahn

In &lt;e9767e$3ej$<a href="mailto:1&#64;naig.caltech.edu" target="_blank">1&#64;naig.caltech.edu</a>&gt; <a href="mailto:raj&#64;alumnae.caltech.edu" target="_blank">raj&#64;alumnae.caltech.edu</a> (Roger Moore) writes:

&gt;&quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; writes:

&gt;&gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:

&gt;&gt;&gt; From 1924 through 2005, home teams are 260-193 .574 in the World
&gt;&gt;&gt; Series.

&gt;&gt;Could somebody (who remembers more high school math than I do)
&gt;&gt;translate that into how often the team with home field advantage should
&gt;&gt;be expected to win the series?

&gt;I get that a game W% of .574 should give a Series W% of about .523. Each
&gt;team has an identical chance of sweeping the series, the visiting team is
&gt;more likely to win in exactly 5 games, and the home team is more likely to
&gt;win in exactly 6 or 7 games.

And even this assumes that the teams are equally matched. If one team
is slightly better than the other (as is typically the case), and this
is uncorrelated with who gets HFA (as it surely was in the years HFA
just alternated, and probably still is the case), then the importance
of HFA diminishes even further (because it's less likely that the series
will go 7 games).

--
Jim
New York, NY
(Please remove &quot;nospam.&quot; to get my e-mail address)
<a href="http://www.panix.com/~kahn" target="_blank">http://www.panix.com/~kahn</a>

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#20: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 19:39:57 by Seapig

Roger Moore wrote:
&gt; &quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; writes:
&gt;
&gt; &gt;Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;
&gt; &gt;&gt; From 1924 through 2005, home teams are 260-193 .574 in the World
&gt; &gt;&gt; Series.
&gt;
&gt; &gt;Could somebody (who remembers more high school math than I do)
&gt; &gt;translate that into how often the team with home field advantage should
&gt; &gt;be expected to win the series?
&gt;
&gt; I get that a game W% of .574 should give a Series W% of about .523. Each
&gt; team has an identical chance of sweeping the series, the visiting team is
&gt; more likely to win in exactly 5 games, and the home team is more likely to
&gt; win in exactly 6 or 7 games.

Thank you. Now, I can play with that .523 a little bit.

The .523 expectation of winning with HFA would be a .500 expectation if
there was no HFA. So, the difference, .023, represents the likelihood
that HFA is a factor that decides the series, I think.

Bringing this back to the All Star Game, the league that wins the All
Star Game would have already had HFA half the time under the old
system, so we can cut that .023 in half, and get a .0115 chance that
tying HFA to the All Star Game will swing the outcome of the Series.
In other words, we can expect this rule change to affect the outcome of
the Series approximately once every 87 years.

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#21: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 22:03:48 by Roger Manyard

James Kahn &lt;<a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a>&gt; trolled:

&gt; And even this assumes that the teams are equally matched. If one
&gt; team is slightly better than the other (as is typically the case),
&gt; and this is uncorrelated with who gets HFA (as it surely was in
&gt; the years HFA just alternated, and probably still is the case),
&gt; then the importance of HFA diminishes even further (because it's
&gt; less likely that the series will go 7 games).

You are making the so-called &quot;Gambler's Fallacy&quot;, if you think that
you are creating odds about this year's WS.

cordially, as always,

rm

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#22: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-14 22:06:15 by Roger Manyard

Seapig &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; trolled:

&gt; Bringing this back to the All Star Game, the league that wins the
&gt; All Star Game would have already had HFA half the time under the
&gt; old system, so we can cut that .023 in half, and get a .0115
&gt; chance that tying HFA to the All Star Game will swing the outcome
&gt; of the Series.

No. Perhaps this has been so in the past, but there is no reason to
suspect that things will happen consistent with these odds in the
future.

&gt; In other words, we can expect this rule change to affect the
&gt; outcome of the Series approximately once every 87 years.

No, you can't.

We would like to know why these statisticians are not down in Vegas
making themselves rich. Perhaps the answer is obvious.

cordially, as always,

rm

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#23: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-15 01:13:29 by garscosi

In article &lt;WOStg.81592$<a href="mailto:RW2.20197&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com" target="_blank">RW2.20197&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com</a>&gt;,
Realto Margarino &lt;<a href="mailto:rm&#64;youasked.org" target="_blank">rm&#64;youasked.org</a>&gt; wrote:

&gt; We would like to know why these statisticians are not down in Vegas
&gt; making themselves rich. Perhaps the answer is obvious.


The answer to why come card counters aren't getting rich is that the
casinos bar them.

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#24: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-15 01:31:12 by Roger Manyard

Gary S. Simon &lt;<a href="mailto:garscosi&#64;thisisatypo.pipeline.com" target="_blank">garscosi&#64;thisisatypo.pipeline.com</a>&gt; trolled:
&gt; Realto Margarino &lt;<a href="mailto:rm&#64;youasked.org" target="_blank">rm&#64;youasked.org</a>&gt; wrote:

&gt; &gt; We would like to know why these statisticians are not down in
&gt; &gt; Vegas making themselves rich. Perhaps the answer is obvious.

&gt; The answer to why come card counters aren't getting rich is that
&gt; the casinos bar them.

We aren't talking about card counters. We're talking about betting
on sporting events, in this case, baseball. These guys think that
they have more insight into the game than anyone else. So obviously
they could make a killing betting on baseball games in Vegas.

And yet, we _know_ that the statfans would lose their shirts because
they don't know nearly as much about the game as the average fan.

cordially, as always,

rm

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#25: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-16 03:52:30 by garscosi

In article &lt;<a href="mailto:1152747921.883343.139250&#64;p79g2000cwp.googlegroups.com" target="_blank">1152747921.883343.139250&#64;p79g2000cwp.googlegroups.com</a>&gt;,
&quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; wrote:

&gt; It's easier to split two
&gt; games on the road than it is to win two at home.


The theoretical probability of doing so is certainly higher, for most
realistic values of home field advantage. Even if, for example, the
home team had a 60% probability of winning each game, the probability
of two consecuttive home wins would be 0.36, while the probability of a
split would be 0.48

OTOH, over the 71 World Series played with the 2-3-2 format (1924*
through 2005), my rough count is that teams opeining at home have won
both of the first two games as often as they've split them (30 times
each).

There have been 72 League Championship Series (1969 through 2005).
Teams opening LCS at home won both of the first two games 19 times, and
split the first two games 37 times. There have also been 48 divisional
series (1981, 1995-2005). Teams opening LDS at home won both of the
first two games 16 times and split the first two games 22 times.#

Overall, that's 65 home teams winning both of the first two games, 89
splitting and 37 losing both of the first two games.

____________________________________________________________ _____________
* I've read the the site of the seventh game of the 1924 series wasn't
determined until the series was underway, but I believe it did wind up
2-3-2.

# On the off-chance that anyone cares, here's how teams with Home Field
Advantage have done in the LDS

Game Series Games
Format Five W L W L

2-3 4 1 10 6 .625 35 27 .565
2-2-1 4 7 15 17 .469 69 61 .531
TOTAL 8 8 25 23 .521 104 88 .542


and the LCS

Game Series Games
Format 5/7 W L W L

2-3 6 4 17 15 .531 69 56 .552
2-3-2 7 4 21 19 .525 121 110 .524
TOTAL 38 34 .528 190 166 .534


Thw LCS began in 1969. Here's how teams with Home Field Advantage in
the World Series have done over the period 1969 through 2005:

Game Series Games
Format Seven W L W L

2-3-2 9 4 23 13 .639 126 82 .606


I can't think of any good reason why the home field advantage (in
both games and series) should be so much more pronounced in the World
Series than in the league playoffs.

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#26: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-16 04:35:21 by Seapig

Gary S. Simon wrote:

&gt; I can't think of any good reason why the home field advantage (in
&gt; both games and series) should be so much more pronounced in the World
&gt; Series than in the league playoffs.

I don't think it's enough to explain the size of the disparity, but the
DH rule in effect since 1986 (playing by the home team's rules),
probably makes the HFA a little stronger in World Series than it is
otherwise. Being unfamiliar with the park might be be a factor also,
but with interleague play, and players regularly switching leagues, I
doubt that it's a big factor.

OTOH, I can think of a couple of reasons why I wouldn't expect the HFA
to be stronger in the World Series. With regard to winning the series,
it should mean more in a five-game series than a seven game series,
because having 3/5 of your games at home makes for a higher percentage
than 4/7. Also, they've given playoff HFA to the teams that had the
better regular season, at least since 1998, which should make the home
teams more likely to win (because they're likely the better team).

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#27: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-16 13:52:24 by richard

In article &lt;WOStg.81592$<a href="mailto:RW2.20197&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com" target="_blank">RW2.20197&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com</a>&gt; on Fri, 14 Jul
2006 20:06:15 GMT, <a href="mailto:rm&#64;youasked.org" target="_blank">rm&#64;youasked.org</a> (Realto Margarino) wrote:

&gt; We would like to know why these statisticians are not down in Vegas
&gt; making themselves rich. Perhaps the answer is obvious.

Statistics apply only over the long run, and the bookies' edge is bigger
than any other advantage? Yeah, pretty obvious.

If I can predict that one extra World Series in 87 will go to the AL
team, but I don't know which one, then what use is that when gambling?

--
Richard Gadsden
&quot;I disagree with what you say, but I will defend to the death
your right to say it&quot; - Attributed to Voltaire

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#28: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-16 14:23:10 by garscosi

In article &lt;<a href="mailto:1153017321.331000.46660&#64;i42g2000cwa.googlegroups.com" target="_blank">1153017321.331000.46660&#64;i42g2000cwa.googlegroups.com</a>&gt;,
&quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; wrote:

&gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt;
&gt; &gt; I can't think of any good reason why the home field advantage (in
&gt; &gt; both games and series) should be so much more pronounced in the World
&gt; &gt; Series than in the league playoffs.


&gt; I don't think it's enough to explain the size of the disparity, but the
&gt; DH rule in effect since 1986 (playing by the home team's rules),
&gt; probably makes the HFA a little stronger in World Series than it is
&gt; otherwise.


Yes, but the percentage of games won by the home team isn't much
higher for the period 1985-2005 than it had been in 1969-1985.
Certainly, that increase alone can't explain the tremendous difference
in the percentage of World Series (or Game 7s) won by teams with HFA.


Game Series Games
Seven W L W L

1969-85 3 4 7 10 .412 61 41 .598
1986-2005 6 0 16 3 .842 65 41 .613


Comparing pre- and post-playoff World Series eras:

Game Series Games
Seven W L W L

1969-2004 9 4 23 13 .639 126 82 .606
1924-68* 8 11 23 20 .535 139 113 .552

____________________________________________________________ _____________

* adjusting for the exclusion of the 1943 and 1945 World Series, in
which the format was 3-4 (due to travel restrictions).

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#29: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-16 23:18:56 by Seapig

Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; In article &lt;<a href="mailto:1153017321.331000.46660&#64;i42g2000cwa.googlegroups.com" target="_blank">1153017321.331000.46660&#64;i42g2000cwa.googlegroups.com</a>&gt;,
&gt; &quot;Seapig&quot; &lt;<a href="mailto:seapig&#64;altavista.com" target="_blank">seapig&#64;altavista.com</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt; &gt; Gary S. Simon wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; &gt; I can't think of any good reason why the home field advantage (in
&gt; &gt; &gt; both games and series) should be so much more pronounced in the World
&gt; &gt; &gt; Series than in the league playoffs.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; &gt; I don't think it's enough to explain the size of the disparity, but the
&gt; &gt; DH rule in effect since 1986 (playing by the home team's rules),
&gt; &gt; probably makes the HFA a little stronger in World Series than it is
&gt; &gt; otherwise.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Yes, but the percentage of games won by the home team isn't much
&gt; higher for the period 1985-2005 than it had been in 1969-1985.
&gt; Certainly, that increase alone can't explain the tremendous difference
&gt; in the percentage of World Series (or Game 7s) won by teams with HFA.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Game Series Games
&gt; Seven W L W L
&gt;
&gt; 1969-85 3 4 7 10 .412 61 41 .598
&gt; 1986-2005 6 0 16 3 .842 65 41 .613


It's probably mostly, if not entirely, explanable just as random
fluctuations, but another factor occurs to me. I've gotten the feeling
in recent years that postseason crowds are louder, more intense, than
they used to be. With all the towel-waving and rally sticks and
whatnot, it creates more of a college football-type atmosphere, which
might equate to a greater home field advantage.

These loud crowds seem to be more prevalent in places where postseason
baseball is something of a novelty - Yankees and Braves fans act like
they've been there before, because they have been there before. When
you look at the teams that have won game sevens in the last 20 years,
it's been the nouveau riche teams, and their crazed crowds have
probably helped.

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#30: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-19 19:58:04 by try

In article &lt;EMStg.81582$<a href="mailto:RW2.57143&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com" target="_blank">RW2.57143&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com</a>&gt;,
<a href="mailto:rm&#64;youasked.org" target="_blank">rm&#64;youasked.org</a> says...
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;James Kahn &lt;<a href="mailto:kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com" target="_blank">kahn&#64;nospam.panix.com</a>&gt; trolled:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; And even this assumes that the teams are equally matched. If one
&gt;&gt; team is slightly better than the other (as is typically the case),
&gt;&gt; and this is uncorrelated with who gets HFA (as it surely was in
&gt;&gt; the years HFA just alternated, and probably still is the case),
&gt;&gt; then the importance of HFA diminishes even further (because it's
&gt;&gt; less likely that the series will go 7 games).
&gt;
&gt;You are making the so-called &quot;Gambler's Fallacy&quot;, if you think that
&gt;you are creating odds about this year's WS.

You're really fucking dumb, aren't you?

And you have no clue as to what the Gambler's Fallacy is.


-Tim

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#31: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-19 19:59:44 by try

In article &lt;4PVtg.83150$<a href="mailto:RW2.69522&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com" target="_blank">RW2.69522&#64;fe05.news.easynews.com</a>&gt;,
<a href="mailto:rm&#64;youasked.org" target="_blank">rm&#64;youasked.org</a> says...
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;Gary S. Simon &lt;<a href="mailto:garscosi&#64;thisisatypo.pipeline.com" target="_blank">garscosi&#64;thisisatypo.pipeline.com</a>&gt; trolled:
&gt;&gt; Realto Margarino &lt;<a href="mailto:rm&#64;youasked.org" target="_blank">rm&#64;youasked.org</a>&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; &gt; We would like to know why these statisticians are not down in
&gt;&gt; &gt; Vegas making themselves rich. Perhaps the answer is obvious.
&gt;
&gt;&gt; The answer to why come card counters aren't getting rich is that
&gt;&gt; the casinos bar them.
&gt;
&gt;We aren't talking about card counters. We're talking about betting
&gt;on sporting events, in this case, baseball. These guys think that
&gt;they have more insight into the game than anyone else. So obviously
&gt;they could make a killing betting on baseball games in Vegas.
&gt;
&gt;And yet, we _know_ that the statfans would lose their shirts because
&gt;they don't know nearly as much about the game as the average fan.

Tell me, oh worthless fucking idiot, just how one would get rich in
knowing that the All Star Game deciding HFA in the World Series would
make a difference, on average, once every 87 years.

No, really, I want to know.


-Tim

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#32: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-20 14:11:02 by Roger Manyard

The Enigmatic One &lt;<a href="mailto:try&#64;again.spammers" target="_blank">try&#64;again.spammers</a>&gt; trolled:

&gt; You're really fucking dumb, aren't you?

Nope.

&gt; And you have no clue as to what the Gambler's Fallacy is.

We sure do.

The results of the last atbat have no effect on the odds of the
result of the next atbat.

Now, go back to sleep.

cordially, as always,

rm

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#33: Re: World Series Home Field Advantage

Posted on 2006-07-20 22:07:33 by Tom MacIntyre

On Thu, 20 Jul 2006 12:11:02 GMT, Realto Margarino &lt;<a href="mailto:rm&#64;youasked.org" target="_blank">rm&#64;youasked.org</a>&gt;
wrote:

&gt;The Enigmatic One &lt;<a href="mailto:try&#64;again.spammers" target="_blank">try&#64;again.spammers</a>&gt; trolled:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; You're really fucking dumb, aren't you?
&gt;
&gt;Nope.
&gt;
&gt;&gt; And you have no clue as to what the Gambler's Fallacy is.
&gt;
&gt;We sure do.
&gt;
&gt;The results of the last atbat have no effect on the odds of the
&gt;result of the next atbat.

It isn't about odds...the human factor takes the laws of probability
out of it somewhat, and the smaller sample you are dealing with, the
more likely the odds will not match the actual.

Tom

&gt;
&gt;Now, go back to sleep.
&gt;
&gt;cordially, as always,
&gt;
&gt;rm

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