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Sports » rec.sport.baseball » RC/25 for SSes (5/6)
| RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005179] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 21:55 |
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RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Derek Jeter, New York-A 10.51 10.22 19.2
Miguel Tejada, Baltimore 9.70 8.52 16.6
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta 7.13 7.79 10.8
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 8.37 7.71 11.7
Hanley Ramirez, Florida 6.30 6.52 11.0
Carlos Guillen, Detroit 6.58 6.41 10.3
Michael Young, Texas 6.25 6.31 11.6
Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh 6.22 5.90 8.7
Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles-A 5.11 5.72 8.9
J. J. Hardy, Milwaukee 4.42 5.07 6.5
David Eckstein, St. Louis 5.18 5.00 6.4
Jose Reyes, New York-N 5.02 4.98 7.4
Khalil Greene, San Diego 4.46 4.92 5.8
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland 4.93 4.87 6.6
Ronny Cedeno, Chicago-N 4.83 4.84 4.9
Craig Counsell, Arizona 5.39 4.68 3.8
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia 4.71 4.61 5.5
AVERAGE REGULAR SS 4.52
Felipe Lopez, Cincinnati 4.71 4.10 3.8
Russ Adams, Toronto 3.58 3.81 1.9
Adam Everett, Houston 3.78 3.56 1.3
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle 3.27 3.36 0.9
Clint Barmes, Colorado 3.14 3.28 0.8
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles-N 2.93 3.10 0.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.06
Bobby Crosby, Oakland 3.08 2.90 -0.4
Royce Clayton, Washington 2.35 2.43 -2.0
Juan Castro, Minnesota 2.48 2.41 -1.5
Angel Berroa, Kansas City 2.39 2.31 -2.2
Alex Gonzalez, Boston 2.06 2.16 -2.3
Tomas Perez, Tampa Bay 2.01 2.06 -2.7
Juan Uribe, Chicago-A 1.84 1.89 -3.3
============================================================ ===================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
============================================================ ===================
Nelson Lu (nlu [at] cs.stanford.edu)
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005191 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 04:55 |
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> Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 8.37 7.71 11.7
I was recently reading the archives of this group from 1995. The word was
then, this Vizquel guy gets press because he's a flashy defensive player,
but his shaky offense makes him a team liability. Here's one of the group's
regulars comparing Vizquel unfavorably to Rey Sanchez:
"Just because Vizquel is on the Indians and has somehow been talked up a lot
lately doesn't make him anything more than a hollow bat at shortstop. Yeah,
he walks more than Sanchez. And hits worse, so his OBP is the same and his
SLG is *lower.*
"Vizquel is 29 this year, Sanchez 28. Vizquel happened to have a good year
this year. You can't seriously tell me that his basestealing, of virtually
nonexistant, if not negative, worth until 1995, and bunting, really means
something.
"Nobody starts stealing more at 29 than they did early in their careers. He
has never been a good percentage basestealer, except for last year. And he
stole 29 bases last year. He has only stolen more than that ONCE in his
career, in 1988 in AA/AA, where he stole 32. (with 15 CS) He was 21 then.
"He might try stealing more, but he's not going to steal more."
Flashing forward ten years, these are Vizquel's top 5 age comps after the
2005 season:
1 Ozzie Smith (911)
2 Dave Concepcion (908)
3 Luis Aparicio (895)
4 Rabbit Maranville (890)
5 Bert Campaneris (890)
And, FWIW, as for stolen bases:
1989-1995 - 81 (62%)
1996-2005 - 261 (74%)
--
Bob Roman
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005203 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 15:18 |
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In article <e3iuv9$j3p$1 [at] xenon.Stanford.EDU>,
Nelson Lu <nlu [at] xenon.Stanford.EDU> wrote:
> RC/25 PRC/25 Value
>Derek Jeter, New York-A 10.51 10.22 19.2
>Miguel Tejada, Baltimore 9.70 8.52 16.6
>Edgar Renteria, Atlanta 7.13 7.79 10.8
>Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 8.37 7.71 11.7
>Hanley Ramirez, Florida 6.30 6.52 11.0
>Carlos Guillen, Detroit 6.58 6.41 10.3
>Michael Young, Texas 6.25 6.31 11.6
.
.
.
It'll be interesting to see where some of these park effects
end the year. Arlington and Atlanta as pitchers' parks?
San Francisco favorable to hitters?
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005204 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 15:21 |
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In article <125qocr1sjuar40 [at] news.supernews.com>,
Bob Roman <robertjroman [at] hotmail.com> wrote:
>> Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 8.37 7.71 11.7
>
>I was recently reading the archives of this group from 1995. The word was
>then, this Vizquel guy gets press because he's a flashy defensive player,
>but his shaky offense makes him a team liability. Here's one of the group's
>regulars comparing Vizquel unfavorably to Rey Sanchez:
>
>
>"Just because Vizquel is on the Indians and has somehow been talked up a lot
>lately doesn't make him anything more than a hollow bat at shortstop. Yeah,
>he walks more than Sanchez. And hits worse, so his OBP is the same and his
>SLG is *lower.*
>
>"Vizquel is 29 this year, Sanchez 28. Vizquel happened to have a good year
>this year. You can't seriously tell me that his basestealing, of virtually
>nonexistant, if not negative, worth until 1995, and bunting, really means
>something.
>
>"Nobody starts stealing more at 29 than they did early in their careers. He
>has never been a good percentage basestealer, except for last year. And he
>stole 29 bases last year. He has only stolen more than that ONCE in his
>career, in 1988 in AA/AA, where he stole 32. (with 15 CS) He was 21 then.
>
>"He might try stealing more, but he's not going to steal more."
>
>
>Flashing forward ten years, these are Vizquel's top 5 age comps after the
>2005 season:
>
>1 Ozzie Smith (911)
>2 Dave Concepcion (908)
>3 Luis Aparicio (895)
>4 Rabbit Maranville (890)
>5 Bert Campaneris (890)
>
>
>And, FWIW, as for stolen bases:
>1989-1995 - 81 (62%)
>1996-2005 - 261 (74%)
.
.
.
So, what players in major league history *have* improved so much
at base-stealing? And, does anyone have a narrative to accompany
Vizquel's Ozzie-like late-career florescence as a hitter? Is he
a training fanatic? Did he swap birth certificates with his older
brother? Was he mis-trained in Cleveland?
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005205 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 16:33 |
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claird [at] lairds.us (Cameron Laird) writes:
>It'll be interesting to see where some of these park effects
>end the year. Arlington and Atlanta as pitchers' parks?
>San Francisco favorable to hitters?
How about Colorado playing as a pitchers' park? If that's still true at
the end of the season, we'll have to look for flying pigs, horsemen of the
apocalypse, and Cubs World Series rings.
--
Roger Moore | Master of Meaningless Trivia | (raj [at] alumni.caltech.edu)
There's no point in questioning authority if you don't listen to the answers.
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005213 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 18:12 |
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In <7r81j3-4hm.ln1 [at] lairds.us> claird [at] lairds.us (Cameron Laird) writes:
>In article <125qocr1sjuar40 [at] news.supernews.com>,
>Bob Roman <robertjroman [at] hotmail.com> wrote:
>>> Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 8.37 7.71 11.7
>>
>>I was recently reading the archives of this group from 1995. The word was
>>then, this Vizquel guy gets press because he's a flashy defensive player,
>>but his shaky offense makes him a team liability. Here's one of the group's
>>regulars comparing Vizquel unfavorably to Rey Sanchez:
>>
>>
>>"Just because Vizquel is on the Indians and has somehow been talked up a lot
>>lately doesn't make him anything more than a hollow bat at shortstop. Yeah,
>>he walks more than Sanchez. And hits worse, so his OBP is the same and his
>>SLG is *lower.*
>>
>>"Vizquel is 29 this year, Sanchez 28. Vizquel happened to have a good year
>>this year. You can't seriously tell me that his basestealing, of virtually
>>nonexistant, if not negative, worth until 1995, and bunting, really means
>>something.
>>
>>"Nobody starts stealing more at 29 than they did early in their careers. He
>>has never been a good percentage basestealer, except for last year. And he
>>stole 29 bases last year. He has only stolen more than that ONCE in his
>>career, in 1988 in AA/AA, where he stole 32. (with 15 CS) He was 21 then.
>>
>>"He might try stealing more, but he's not going to steal more."
>>
>>
>>Flashing forward ten years, these are Vizquel's top 5 age comps after the
>>2005 season:
>>
>>1 Ozzie Smith (911)
>>2 Dave Concepcion (908)
>>3 Luis Aparicio (895)
>>4 Rabbit Maranville (890)
>>5 Bert Campaneris (890)
>>
>>
>>And, FWIW, as for stolen bases:
>>1989-1995 - 81 (62%)
>>1996-2005 - 261 (74%)
> .
> .
> .
>So, what players in major league history *have* improved so much
>at base-stealing? And, does anyone have a narrative to accompany
>Vizquel's Ozzie-like late-career florescence as a hitter? Is he
>a training fanatic? Did he swap birth certificates with his older
>brother? Was he mis-trained in Cleveland?
This is a bit of an exaggeration, though. He had 4 or 5 good basestealing
years in the middle of his career (age 29-32 or so), when he averaged 39
SBs and 10 CSs. Since then it's been 17 and 8 (or 19 and 9 if you ignore
2003 when he must have been injured). It's still true that he had those
unexpectedly good years (most base stealers do peak early), but he's declined
with age since then. And he's still been an offensive liability for
the most part.
--
Jim
New York, NY
(Please remove "nospam." to get my e-mail address)
http://www.panix.com/~kahn
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005228 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 22:26 |
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Roger Moore wrote:
> claird [at] lairds.us (Cameron Laird) writes:
>
> >It'll be interesting to see where some of these park effects
> >end the year. Arlington and Atlanta as pitchers' parks?
> >San Francisco favorable to hitters?
>
> How about Colorado playing as a pitchers' park? If that's still true at
> the end of the season, we'll have to look for flying pigs, horsemen of the
> apocalypse, and Cubs World Series rings.
I'm not even sure it's true _now_. Colorado hasn't played an equal mix
of common opponents at home and on the road. Let's look at their
schedule thus far:
Home: 3 AZ, 3 SD, 3 PHI, 3 SF, 2 CIN, 2 HOU
Away: 3 AZ, 3 SD, 4 PHI, 3 FLA, 2 ATL
That means that out of 31 games, Colorado has played 9 home games and 9
road games with common opponents (3 games each at home and on the road
with AZ/SD/PHI), but also:
3 home games against San Francisco, none on the road;
2 home games against Cincinnati, none on the road;
2 home games against Houston, none on the road;
3 road games against Florida, none at home;
2 road games against Atlanta, none at home; and
1 extra road game against Philadelphia.
I don't see how we can draw any conclusions about how Coors field is
playing from that set of data. Not to mention that Colorado has only
played in five road parks thus far; they haven't even seen the other
_ten_ parks in the league.
--Ray
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005229 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 22:57 |
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Raymond DiPerna <rdiperna [at] nyc.rr.com> trolled:
> I'm not even sure it's true _now_. Colorado hasn't played an equal mix
> of common opponents at home and on the road. Let's look at their
> schedule thus far:
[anal-ysis deleted]
It's nice of you to go to the trouble of explaining that Colorado
isn't really a pitchers' park.
But everybody already knows it, you dumb fuck.
Please stop posting.
cordially, as always,
rm
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005238 ] |
Mon, 08 May 2006 01:31 |
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In article <7r81j3-4hm.ln1 [at] lairds.us>, claird [at] lairds.us (Cameron Laird)
wrote:
> In article <125qocr1sjuar40 [at] news.supernews.com>,
> Bob Roman <robertjroman [at] hotmail.com> wrote:
> >"Nobody starts stealing more at 29 than they did early in their careers. He
> >has never been a good percentage basestealer, except for last year. And he
> >stole 29 bases last year. He has only stolen more than that ONCE in his
> >career, in 1988 in AA/AA, where he stole 32. (with 15 CS) He was 21 then.
> >
> >"He might try stealing more, but he's not going to steal more."
> >
> >
> >Flashing forward ten years, these are Vizquel's top 5 age comps after the
> >2005 season:
> >
> >1 Ozzie Smith (911)
> >2 Dave Concepcion (908)
> >3 Luis Aparicio (895)
> >4 Rabbit Maranville (890)
> >5 Bert Campaneris (890)
> >
> >
> >And, FWIW, as for stolen bases:
> >1989-1995 - 81 (62%)
> >1996-2005 - 261 (74%)
> .
> .
> .
> So, what players in major league history *have* improved so much
> at base-stealing?
Wally Moses?
Ages 24-30 55 steals, high of 15, 33 caught stealing
Ages 31-33 93 steals, low of 16, 31 caught stealing.
--
Gerry Myerson (gerry [at] maths.mq.edi.ai) (i -> u for email)
------------ And now a word from our sponsor ------------------
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fast, efficient and reliable. For home servers or carrier class
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005245 ] |
Mon, 08 May 2006 01:32 |
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"James Kahn" <kahn [at] nospam.panix.com> wrote...
> This is a bit of an exaggeration, though. He had 4 or 5 good basestealing
> years in the middle of his career (age 29-32 or so), when he averaged 39
> SBs and 10 CSs. Since then it's been 17 and 8 (or 19 and 9 if you ignore
> 2003 when he must have been injured). It's still true that he had those
> unexpectedly good years (most base stealers do peak early), but he's
> declined
> with age since then.
True for the most part, but Vizquel was 9th in SB in the NL last year.
> And he's still been an offensive liability for
> the most part.
In the ten years since the quote I pulled, Vizquel's OPS+ line is:
97 85 89 111 91 74 100 80 95 84
Meanwhile, Rey Sanchez (with whom he was compared unfavorably) over the same
period:
40 72 84 78 60 62 78 52 63 68
--
Bob Roman
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1005249 ] |
Mon, 08 May 2006 01:32 |
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James Kahn wrote:
> In <7r81j3-4hm.ln1 [at] lairds.us> claird [at] lairds.us (Cameron Laird) writes:
> >In article <125qocr1sjuar40 [at] news.supernews.com>,
> >Bob Roman <robertjroman [at] hotmail.com> wrote:
> >>And, FWIW, as for stolen bases:
> >>1989-1995 - 81 (62%)
> >>1996-2005 - 261 (74%)
> > .
> >So, what players in major league history *have* improved so much
> >at base-stealing? And, does anyone have a narrative to accompany
> >Vizquel's Ozzie-like late-career florescence as a hitter? Is he
> >a training fanatic? Did he swap birth certificates with his older
> >brother? Was he mis-trained in Cleveland?
>
> This is a bit of an exaggeration, though. He had 4 or 5 good basestealing
> years in the middle of his career (age 29-32 or so), when he averaged 39
> SBs and 10 CSs. Since then it's been 17 and 8 (or 19 and 9 if you ignore
> 2003 when he must have been injured). It's still true that he had those
> unexpectedly good years (most base stealers do peak early), but he's declined
> with age since then.
But the improvement from ages 29-32 (actually it looks more like the
real improvement came at age 28) is kind of the point -- a guy heading
into his 30s substantially improving his base stealing ability, both in
frequency and in success rate. That doesn't seem like a normal career
pattern to me. So I'm not sure that we should gloss over the 29-32
improvement.
But the other point is that even leaving aside his 29-32 performance,
his base stealing from ages 32-39 far exceeded his performance from
ages 22-28. That doesn't seem like a normal career pattern either.
Here, let's put it all together:
Ages 22-28: 52 out of 90 = 58%
Ages 29-32: 157 out of 199 = 79%
Ages 32-39: 110 out of 159 = 69%
> And he's still been an offensive liability for the most part.
I think that's a bit unfair. After the first few years of his career,
he improved his ability to get on base, taking more walks and generally
hitting for a higher average; he also improved his ability to hit for
power relative to the league, and we already discussed his improvement
in the stolen base department. I don't think he's been an offensive
liability compared to other SSs; here's how his VORP compares to other
SSs in his league (either AL or NL) since 1996:
1996: 39 (4th)
1997: 26 (5th)
1998: 28 (4th)
1999: 55 (4th)
2000: 29 (7th)
2001: 0 (19th)
2002: 26 (6th)
2003: 3 (16th)
2004: 26 (5th)
2005: 12 (9th)
He's generally been in the top half of SSs, offensively, in his league.
And, of course, the AL has been jam packed with SSs over that time
span (ARod, Jeter, Garciaparra, Tejada, Guillen). He only really was
worthless with the bat in 2001 and 2003 (yeah, 2005 was nothing to
write home about either).
I think he's held his own offensively. And he's done fine on the
defensive side of things. The feeling when he signed that big 6-year,
$18 M contract several years ago was that the Indians had made a silly
signing. Happily, and to Vizquel's credit, that turned out not to be
the case.
--Ray
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| Re: RC/25 for SSes (5/6) [message #1014998 ] |
Mon, 08 May 2006 03:59 |
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"Cameron Laird" <claird [at] lairds.us> wrote...
> So, what players in major league history *have* improved so much
> at base-stealing? And, does anyone have a narrative to accompany
> Vizquel's Ozzie-like late-career florescence as a hitter? Is he
> a training fanatic? Did he swap birth certificates with his older
> brother? Was he mis-trained in Cleveland?
Because most Latin players claim to be younger, Vizquel took it on himself
to claim to be older -- you know, to even out the accounting.
--
Bob Roman
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