|
Sports » uk.sport.football » [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds
| [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995267] |
Wed, 03 May 2006 17:52 |
|
****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
And so we come to the end of the road for this, the inaugural season of the
Saturday Betcunts League. Before we begin this final week of splurgamous
youkafication, I'd like to thank everyone for taking part, and give a
special smoochy mention to the lovely Martin for giving me a few weeks off
here and there. You've all been great, especially in the criteria of
formatting, competitiveness and intensity. Really good intensity from start
to finish by all concerned, great effort.
Without further how-do-you-do, then, I present the final week's match odds.
Remember, guys, it's a Super Sunday Double-Betcunt, so you can post two bets
if you want to. Total staked must not exceed your opening balance (except
for AMY bets, of course), and you must bet on two _different_ fixtures, but
aside from that it's pretty much a free swim.
Some time over the next few weeks I'll be inviting prospective entrants for
next year to suggest improvements, amendments or any other kind of ments for
the SBL's second season, and hopefully sign a few of you up for a spot of
Martinesque admin so I can get a few more weeks off. TonyMac has also
offered to produce some kind of statsweb to show us all where we went wrong
or wronger this year so I'll be forwarding on the spreadshit to him once the
final scores are in and we'll all have that to look forward to.
For now, though, there are more pressing matters at hand, namely who walks
away with the first ever SBL trophy. Very exciting times indeed, so best of
luck to all concerned.
Remember also, TMac, the flawed but better-than-nothing system that requires
you to place your betcunt 23 hours earlier than anyone else. Hope it
doesn't fuck you up.
======================================
Final week's match odds: (7/5/06)
Home Draw Away
Arsenal v Wigan (15:00 BST) 1.28 5.9 12
Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
Blackburn v Man City (15:00 BST) 1.74 3.75 6.4
Bolton v Birmingham (15:00 BST) 1.66 3.8 7.1
Everton v West Brom (15:00 BST) 1.68 3.6 6.1
Fulham v Middlesbrough (15:00 BST) 1.8 3.6 5
Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
Newcastle v Chelsea (15:00 BST) 3.3 3.4 2.4
Portsmouth v Liverpool (15:00 BST) 5.5 4.3 1.73
West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
Deadline for TonyMac's betcunting: 15:00 BST, 6/5/06
Deadline for all other betcunting: 14:00 BST, 7/5/06
=======================================
Balances:
TonyMac 1117
Mikey 704
General 331
Steve H 305
Dat 305
Ben 255
Parkes 99
Bobby Int 37
Ryan 24
Martin 16
Kevin 5
Chopsy 6
Poleson 5
Joe 5
Sid 5
Vicky 5
Roondog 5
JdS 5
========
--
"VIVA Las BETCUNTS!!!1one!1!!momentoftruth!!1!1!" - Elvis Presley
http://uksf.org.uk/betcunt/
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995291 ] |
Wed, 03 May 2006 22:32 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> reduced the crowd to
uncontrollable tears by saying
news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk:
> ****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
As head leader of the pack, one week before my demise, I'd like to take
this opportunity to reproduce some of the lyrics of 'Enterprise', the ill-
fated, ill-advised travesty of a tribute to Star Trek. Ahem.
Ah-one, ah-two, ah-one, two, three, four...
It's been a long road,
To get from there to here.
It's been a long time,
but my time is finally here.
Fuck me, it's worse than I thought Jim. I haven't been this depressed since
I inadvertantly watched an episode of Star Trek : The Animated Series.
> And so we come to the end of the road for this, the inaugural season
> of the Saturday Betcunts League. Before we begin this final week of
> splurgamous youkafication, I'd like to thank everyone for taking part,
> and give a special smoochy mention to the lovely Martin for giving me
> a few weeks off here and there. You've all been great, especially in
> the criteria of formatting, competitiveness and intensity. Really
> good intensity from start to finish by all concerned, great effort.
Thanks to you kind Joe, we've had this competition to begin with. If you
measure the distance from the tip of Mount Everest on Earth to the base of
Olympic Mons on Mars, it wouldn't begin to describe the length of feeling I
have for this competition.
Whatever happens next, we'll always have Mabbutt.
> Some time over the next few weeks I'll be inviting prospective
> entrants for next year to suggest improvements, amendments or any
> other kind of ments for the SBL's second season, and hopefully sign a
> few of you up for a spot of Martinesque admin so I can get a few more
> weeks off. TonyMac has also offered to produce some kind of statsweb
> to show us all where we went wrong or wronger this year so I'll be
> forwarding on the spreadshit to him once the final scores are in and
> we'll all have that to look forward to.
I did do that didn't I? I have some very strong ideas that I'll be sharing
with you and your spreadsheet in the near future, Mr Joe.
> Remember also, TMac, the flawed but better-than-nothing system that
> requires you to place your betcunt 23 hours earlier than anyone else.
> Hope it doesn't fuck you up.
Me too!11onefuckmeupwithapinchofsaltyfuckup
I will bet AMY on Liverpool and then AMY on Chelsea to win.
> Arsenal v Wigan (15:00 BST) 1.28 5.9 12
> Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
> Blackburn v Man City (15:00 BST) 1.74 3.75 6.4
> Bolton v Birmingham (15:00 BST) 1.66 3.8 7.1
> Everton v West Brom (15:00 BST) 1.68 3.6 6.1
> Fulham v Middlesbrough (15:00 BST) 1.8 3.6 5
> Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
> Newcastle v Chelsea (15:00 BST) 3.3 3.4 2.4
> Portsmouth v Liverpool (15:00 BST) 5.5 4.3 1.73
> West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>
> Deadline for TonyMac's betcunting: 15:00 BST, 6/5/06
> Deadline for all other betcunting: 14:00 BST, 7/5/06
Heh, as Vicky said before she unluckily bet on the Spurs to beat Arsenal,
there's No Second Prize. It's also the title of a very poor 1992 arcade
racer bike sim with 3-D graphics that sold seven copies during the Atari ST
years. Here's a link - http://alexh.umcus.org/games/nsp/nsp_2.html
My left testicle hopes you enjoy it.
If not, here's a marvellous review of 'Gigli' starring Ben Affleck and
Jennifer Lopez.http://www.agonybooth.com/gigli/
Nothing within my withered soul hopes you enjoy the film.
> TonyMac 1117
I will probably regret the bets I place now, but I won't regret the
absolute ball-crunching tension and relief that I've felt when one of my
larger betcunts paid off.
My hat is duly doffed to 'Gentleman' Joe Horowitz, pound for pound, the
most noble, intelligent barman who ever lived. Except for me when I worked
in Liverpool John Moores University Student Union Bar.
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995293 ] |
Wed, 03 May 2006 22:47 |
|
On Wed, 03 May 2006 15:52:49 GMT, "Joe Horowitz"
<my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote:
>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
3 Youks on the Hammers to annoy me by winning and finishing above the
Latics, please Youkmeister.
C
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995297 ] |
Wed, 03 May 2006 22:59 |
|
According to <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey>:
>Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
2 on the draw
>Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
AMY on the draw
> Vicky 5
--
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995308 ] |
Wed, 03 May 2006 23:43 |
|
On Wed, 03 May 2006 21:47:11 +0100, Chopsy
<msrfx [at] getrid.tiscali.co.uk> wrote:
>On Wed, 03 May 2006 15:52:49 GMT, "Joe Horowitz"
><my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote:
>
>>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>
>3 Youks on the Hammers to annoy me by winning and finishing above the
>Latics, please Youkmeister.
Newcastle v Chelsea (15:00 BST) 3.3 3.4 2.4
And then 1 Youk on Newcastle to win.
C
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995324 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 01:38 |
|
Chopsy <msrfx [at] getrid.tiscali.co.uk> wrote in
news:pi5i525qd3upsoj7d1c7pmerh49foeaehh [at] 4ax.com:
>>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>
> 3 Youks on the Hammers to annoy me by winning and finishing above the
> Latics, please Youkmeister.
>
I know your games Mr Reverse-Psychology.
--
Cheers, Os
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995329 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 02:00 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in
> Final week's match odds: (7/5/06)
> West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
1st bet: 4 on West Ham
> Portsmouth v Liverpool (15:00 BST) 5.5 4.3 1.73
2nd bet: AMY on Portsmouth.
> Sid 5
Excellent competition, Joe. From winning the beta version last year to
being equal last in the penultimate week this year has been a great ride.
Sid
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995333 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 02:08 |
|
Sid <sidESSSPAMMMMM [at] MMMMMMAPSSSSEnerte.net> wrote in news:4bsugvF12tl4iU3
[at] individual.net:
>
>> Sid 5
>
> .... this year has been a great ride.
>
The Nunnxclusivity!
--
Cheers, Os
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995358 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 11:44 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
> ****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
>
>
> Arsenal v Wigan (15:00 BST) 1.28 5.9 12
4 youks on wigan
> Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
all remaining youks on chorlton and the wheelies.
> Roondog 5
> ========
>
>
>
> --
> "VIVA Las BETCUNTS!!!1one!1!!momentoftruth!!1!1!" - Elvis Presley
>
> http://uksf.org.uk/betcunt/
>
>
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995368 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 16:43 |
|
On Wed, 03 May 2006 15:52:49 GMT, Joe Horowitz presented this to
uk.sport.football:
> ****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
>
> Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
> Fulham v Middlesbrough (15:00 BST) 1.8 3.6 5
>
> Poleson 5
Ok, Y3 on Sunderland to WIN and AMRY on Boro to win.
And I would love to say this has been a great comp and long may
it continue, but I'm not going to. Ha hah!
--
poleson at gmail dot com
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995384 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 19:23 |
|
On 3 May 2006 23:38:09 GMT, Osbourne Ruddock <strikeboy [at] hotmail.com>
wrote:
>Chopsy <msrfx [at] getrid.tiscali.co.uk> wrote in
>news:pi5i525qd3upsoj7d1c7pmerh49foeaehh [at] 4ax.com:
>
>>>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>>
>> 3 Youks on the Hammers to annoy me by winning and finishing above the
>> Latics, please Youkmeister.
>>
>
>I know your games Mr Reverse-Psychology.
It hasn't worked so far Os, it hasn't worked so far.
C
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995385 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 19:33 |
|
Chopsy wrote:
>
> On 3 May 2006 23:38:09 GMT, Osbourne Ruddock <strikeboy [at] hotmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> >Chopsy <msrfx [at] getrid.tiscali.co.uk> wrote in
> >news:pi5i525qd3upsoj7d1c7pmerh49foeaehh [at] 4ax.com:
> >
> >>>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
> >>
> >> 3 Youks on the Hammers to annoy me by winning and finishing above the
> >> Latics, please Youkmeister.
> >>
> >
> >I know your games Mr Reverse-Psychology.
>
> It hasn't worked so far Os, it hasn't worked so far.
You need to start doing wsc again. Wigan performed brilliantly until
Christmas but then dropped off. The lack of your wsc is the only
possible explanation.
James
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995387 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 20:23 |
|
On Thu, 04 May 2006 18:33:23 +0100, James Grabowski <gribbs [at] gmail.com>
wrote:
>Chopsy wrote:
>> It hasn't worked so far Os, it hasn't worked so far.
>
>You need to start doing wsc again. Wigan performed brilliantly until
>Christmas but then dropped off. The lack of your wsc is the only
>possible explanation.
Looks like relegation for us then next season.
Never mind, I like Burnley.
C
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995388 ] |
Thu, 04 May 2006 21:05 |
|
Chopsy wrote:
>
> On Thu, 04 May 2006 18:33:23 +0100, James Grabowski <gribbs [at] gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> >Chopsy wrote:
>
> >> It hasn't worked so far Os, it hasn't worked so far.
> >
> >You need to start doing wsc again. Wigan performed brilliantly until
> >Christmas but then dropped off. The lack of your wsc is the only
> >possible explanation.
>
> Looks like relegation for us then next season.
You should still be ok but probably not as high as this season.
> Never mind, I like Burnley.
That's just sick.
James
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #995406 ] |
Fri, 05 May 2006 08:15 |
|
On Wed, 03 May 2006 20:32:07 GMT, Tony McChrystal
<tony.mcchrystal [at] hotmail.com> wrote:
>I will bet AMY on Liverpool and then AMY on Chelsea to win.
Ah, two chances to fuck it up good and proper. You are most kind, good
Sir.
I thank you and I feel confident that my children would too were I to
have been cursed with any. In any case the cat says "Meow", whatever
the fuck that means.
--
Dat
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017475 ] |
Fri, 05 May 2006 19:51 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
> Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
> Joe 5
5 on teh Sunderland.
> Everton v West Brom (15:00 BST) 1.68 3.6 6.1
AMY on teh West Brom.
--
Joe
Pay it fast it will be great..!!!
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017479 ] |
Fri, 05 May 2006 22:18 |
|
> ======================================
> Final week's match odds: (7/5/06)
Home Draw Away
> Arsenal v Wigan (15:00 BST) 1.28 5.9 12
> Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
> Bobby Int 37
> ========
AMY on the ARSE and MANU WIN please.
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017480 ] |
Fri, 05 May 2006 22:33 |
|
"Tony McChrystal" <tony.mcchrystal [at] hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:Xns97B8DB14C9963tonymcchrystalhotmai [at] 195.188.240.200...
> Thanks to you kind Joe, we've had this competition to begin with. If you
> measure the distance from the tip of Mount Everest on Earth to the base of
> Olympic Mons on Mars, it wouldn't begin to describe the length of feeling
> I
> have for this competition.
It speaks very highly of you, TonyMac, it speaks very highly of you.
I especially have enjoyed and admired your big-cocked and pro-active
approach to the final week. Great stuff. If it comes off for you, you'll
have 100% deserved it.
> I did do that didn't I? I have some very strong ideas that I'll be sharing
> with you and your spreadsheet in the near future, Mr Joe.
I look forward to them.
> I will bet AMY on Liverpool and then AMY on Chelsea to win.
Sexy.
> I will probably regret the bets I place now, but I won't regret the
> absolute ball-crunching tension and relief that I've felt when one of my
> larger betcunts paid off.
AWTWP. It's like how I only ever gamble real money once a year, on the
Grand National. Kind of a birthday tradition. I don't actually expect to
see my money again, I just enjoy the excitement of watching the race with
real vested interest.
My AMY bets this year were very exciting, and with the exception of AMY on
Arsenal they were also very great.
> My hat is duly doffed to 'Gentleman' Joe Horowitz, pound for pound, the
> most noble, intelligent barman who ever lived. Except for me when I worked
> in Liverpool John Moores University Student Union Bar.
Do I get a prize for coming second?
--
Joe
Pay it fast it will be great..!!!
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017492 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 00:49 |
|
On Wed, 03 May 2006 15:52:49 GMT, "Joe Horowitz"
<my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote:
>****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
>
Well, this has been one splendiferous competition, even when I was
running it. I had great fun helping out and would be happy to do so
again in a similar capacity next season.
But, now, how to blow ones Youks in 2 easy lessons:
>Blackburn v Man City (15:00 BST) 1.74 3.75 6.4
AMY on teh draw
>Portsmouth v Liverpool (15:00 BST) 5.5 4.3 1.73
AMY on teh draw again.
> Martin 16
Thank you, you've been a wonderful audience.
Cheers Elvis mate!
M
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017500 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 09:09 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> Chewed on
uk.sport.football then managed to spit out :
> ****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
>
>
> Fulham v Middlesbrough (15:00 BST) 1.8 3.6 5
100 on an AWAY WIN.
> Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
AMY on the DRAW.
--
Steve
As best I can tell 2005 was the year of the sprout... [Dat 2005]
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017505 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 13:27 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:lEO6g.223323$8Q3.121309 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>
> I especially have enjoyed and admired your big-cocked and pro-active
> approach to the final week. Great stuff. If it comes off for you, you'll
> have 100% deserved it.
Allen Parkes is now odds-on to finish the competition ahead of TMAK.
No, really, he is. Although Mikey's probably the only other person to have
picked up on that.
Think about that for a second, everyone.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017508 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 15:35 |
|
"Sir Benjamin Nunn" <bennunn [at] depro.co.uk> wrote in message
news:4c3fgcF140ci6U1 [at] individual.net...
>
> "Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
> news:lEO6g.223323$8Q3.121309 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>>
>> I especially have enjoyed and admired your big-cocked and pro-active
>> approach to the final week. Great stuff. If it comes off for you,
>> you'll have 100% deserved it.
>
>
> Allen Parkes is now odds-on to finish the competition ahead of TMAK.
Yes, Parkes has played a fine game as well.
> No, really, he is. Although Mikey's probably the only other person to have
> picked up on that.
Yes, yes he is. Me, I'm lost, all of this goes right over my head.
> Think about that for a second, everyone.
Done. Now, supposing the odds posted were not _real_ odds, like you get
with playing cards, but merely estimates, created by the weight of public
ghambolling opinion. Opinions which could be wrong. Or, to put it another
way, do Chelsea become less likely to win the more people bet against them?
No, providing none of those people are the ref. So the odds, reasonably
accurate though they probably are, do not always necessarily reflect the
exact chances of something happening.
Supposing TonyMac reckons they're wrong, and exploits that wrongness for his
own advantage, and wins the comp because of it. Won't he have done well?
So, to summarise, nobody actually knows what the odds of TonyMac finishing
below Parkes really are. Not even you.
--
Joe
Pay it fast it will be great..!!!
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017519 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 16:43 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:JC17g.227572$8Q3.33410 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>
> Done. Now, supposing the odds posted were not _real_ odds, like you get
> with playing cards, but merely estimates, created by the weight of public
> ghambolling opinion. Opinions which could be wrong. Or, to put it
> another way, do Chelsea become less likely to win the more people bet
> against them? No, providing none of those people are the ref. So the
> odds, reasonably accurate though they probably are, do not always
> necessarily reflect the exact chances of something happening.
Except that football matches are *fixed odds*. Apart from very exceptional
circumstances, the bookies determine these a couple of weeks before the
event, and they don't change when people bet on them or when the situation
changes. They are different from tote odds.
This is exactly why some people - certainly not me BTW - can make a living
from betting on fixed odds. Because the price doesn't change even though the
money changing hands does, so occasionally the bookies can get caught out.
> Supposing TonyMac reckons they're wrong, and exploits that wrongness for
> his own advantage, and wins the comp because of it. Won't he have done
> well?
Obviously it would depend on how it compares to all the potential strategies
he could have chosen at the time.
Put it this way. When I saw TMAKs actual betcunt I was fucking delighted,
and I suspect Mikey was too.
> So, to summarise, nobody actually knows what the odds of TonyMac finishing
> below Parkes really are. Not even you.
Of course not, but we can figure out approximate odds, like the bookies do.
And assuming they're not wrong by a factor of 3, then the assertion that
TMAC finishing with zero youks is less than evens holds true.
And there haven't been too many times in history that bookies have been
wrong by that much, or they wouldn't exist. When bookies do get it wrong,
which is rarely, it's by a tiny margin.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017520 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 16:53 |
|
On Sat, 6 May 2006 15:43:34 +0100, Sir Benjamin Nunn presented
this to uk.sport.football:
>
> And there haven't been too many times in history that bookies have been
> wrong by that much, or they wouldn't exist. When bookies do get it wrong,
> which is rarely, it's by a tiny margin.
>
If bookies are so fucking great then why don't they start an
'Ask Bookies' thread?
--
poleson at gmail dot com
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017528 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 18:10 |
|
"Robert Poleson" <sp [at] m.no> wrote in message
news:MPG.1ec6c8bee178950198983d [at] news.clara.net...
> On Sat, 6 May 2006 15:43:34 +0100, Sir Benjamin Nunn presented
> this to uk.sport.football:
>>
>> And there haven't been too many times in history that bookies have been
>> wrong by that much, or they wouldn't exist. When bookies do get it wrong,
>> which is rarely, it's by a tiny margin.
>>
>
> If bookies are so fucking great then why don't they start an
> 'Ask Bookies' thread?
You remember what a disaster 'Bookies Penis Paragraph' was, right?
I'm surprised you even need to ask this question, tbh.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017531 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 18:21 |
|
"Sir Benjamin Nunn" <bennunn [at] depro.co.uk> wrote in message
news:4c3r0dF13g07uU1 [at] individual.net...
>
> "Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
> news:JC17g.227572$8Q3.33410 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>>
>> Done. Now, supposing the odds posted were not _real_ odds, like you get
>> with playing cards, but merely estimates, created by the weight of public
>> ghambolling opinion. Opinions which could be wrong. Or, to put it
>> another way, do Chelsea become less likely to win the more people bet
>> against them? No, providing none of those people are the ref. So the
>> odds, reasonably accurate though they probably are, do not always
>> necessarily reflect the exact chances of something happening.
>
>
> Except that football matches are *fixed odds*. Apart from very exceptional
> circumstances, the bookies determine these a couple of weeks before the
> event, and they don't change when people bet on them or when the situation
> changes. They are different from tote odds.
>
> This is exactly why some people - certainly not me BTW - can make a living
> from betting on fixed odds. Because the price doesn't change even though
> the money changing hands does, so occasionally the bookies can get caught
> out.
Agreed. But surely, that doesn't change the fact that the real odds of a
team winning a match are almost impossible to calculate, and rather than
making money by getting them right on the whole, the bookies make money by
getting the balance right overall, so some odds are generous and some are
tight but they'll usually make a profit whoever bets on what, providing the
spead of betting is varied.
>> Supposing TonyMac reckons they're wrong, and exploits that wrongness for
>> his own advantage, and wins the comp because of it. Won't he have done
>> well?
>
>
> Obviously it would depend on how it compares to all the potential
> strategies he could have chosen at the time.
>
> Put it this way. When I saw TMAKs actual betcunt I was fucking delighted,
> and I suspect Mikey was too.
Yes, me too. And I'll maintain to the bitter end that if he loses, he's
lost, but if he wins then he'll deserve all the plaudits'n'shit and will
have done well. He'll have nearly three thousand youks ffs.
>> So, to summarise, nobody actually knows what the odds of TonyMac
>> finishing below Parkes really are. Not even you.
>
>
> Of course not, but we can figure out approximate odds, like the bookies
> do. And assuming they're not wrong by a factor of 3, then the assertion
> that TMAC finishing with zero youks is less than evens holds true.
Why should we assume that the odds aren't wrong by a factor of three? We
don't really know the odds if we're honest.
> And there haven't been too many times in history that bookies have been
> wrong by that much, or they wouldn't exist. When bookies do get it wrong,
> which is rarely, it's by a tiny margin.
How will we know, at the end of the week, if the bookies got it wrong, and
by what margin? Your arguments still seem to lean on a number of
assumptions which can neither be proven or disproved.
Like I said, if these matches were in fact playing cards I'd agree all the
way, cards are numerically consistent. Supposing a dealer shuffles a pack
thoroughly, and then deals one card, and someone puts AHY on that one card
not being a spade. Supposing the process is to be repeated three times, and
the player puts AHY on No Spades. You could assert with great confidence
that he is odds-on favourite to lose his money.
If the same player backs three consecutive Chelsea wins at the same odds,
you can't make the same assertion with such confidence, because the odds
don't necessarily reflect the exact chances of Chelsea winning those
matches, which are in fact impossible to calculate, and might not take into
account Owen's injury, Charlton's rubbishcunt formation or Arsenal's
upcoming CL match.
They're probably about right, of course, but might be wrong, and might even
be wrong by a factor of more than three.
Regardless, the player who wins the SBL will have played well to do so, luck
obviously plays a part just it does for the cunt who comes last, but the
eventual winner of this comp will have my kudos whoever that is.
I do understand your webs, I really do, I just think they're a little
simplistic in their use of listed odds. I also think it's arrogant to
assert that anyone who disagrees with you simply doesn't understand, as if
what you say is so inarguably right that to understand is to agree. As far
as ghambolling theory goes they're solid and dependable. These odds are not
necessarily the odds of the results, though, they're merely what you get if
you win. In that respect, TonyMac has used them very well.
--
Joe
Pay it fast it will be great..!!!
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017535 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 18:47 |
|
On Sat, 06 May 2006 16:21:47 GMT, Joe Horowitz presented this to
uk.sport.football:
>
> "Sir Benjamin Nunn" <bennunn [at] depro.co.uk> wrote in message
> news:4c3r0dF13g07uU1 [at] individual.net...
> >
> > Put it this way. When I saw TMAKs actual betcunt I was fucking delighted,
> > and I suspect Mikey was too.
>
> Yes, me too. And I'll maintain to the bitter end that if he loses, he's
> lost, but if he wins then he'll deserve all the plaudits'n'shit and will
> have done well. He'll have nearly three thousand youks ffs.
>
When I saw Tony's bet, hidden in the depths of his 90 line post
(that was interesting), my initial reaction was, "WTF are you
playing at, man???" While it remains a very risky bet it is by
no means at all an impossibility for it to pay off. In fact it
has a fairly good chance of coming through for him. I hope it
does, Tony is one of the good guys and I would rather send him a
present than some dead cunt.
--
poleson at gmail dot com
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017536 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 18:49 |
|
On Wed, 03 May 2006 15:52:49 GMT, "Joe Horowitz"
<my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote:
>Everton v West Brom (15:00 BST) 1.68 3.6 6.1
May I please place 200 on an Eve v WBA draw.
>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
And 105 on a Hammers v Spurs draw as well, your Worship.
--
Dat
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017538 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 19:05 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:v247g.228769$8Q3.7789 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>
>>
>> Put it this way. When I saw TMAKs actual betcunt I was fucking delighted,
>> and I suspect Mikey was too.
>
> Yes, me too. And I'll maintain to the bitter end that if he loses, he's
> lost, but if he wins then he'll deserve all the plaudits'n'shit and will
> have done well. He'll have nearly three thousand youks ffs.
Heh. Nice misinformation strategy.
I like it, though it won't work.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017539 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 19:08 |
|
"Dat" <dat_004 [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
news:82kp52paclktodko2buef5fherfpv6inrb [at] 4ax.com...
> On Wed, 03 May 2006 15:52:49 GMT, "Joe Horowitz"
> <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote:
>
>>Everton v West Brom (15:00 BST) 1.68 3.6 6.1
>
> May I please place 200 on an Eve v WBA draw.
>
>>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>
> And 105 on a Hammers v Spurs draw as well, your Worship.
Interesting. Very.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017540 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 19:13 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
> ****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
> Home Draw
> Away
> Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
> West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
> Ryan 24
AllMyYouks on a Aston Villa - Spurs double pretty please.
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017541 ] |
Sat, 06 May 2006 19:19 |
|
"Ryan" <dooran [at] SPAMblueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
news:XKOdnfLwU5DcRMHZnZ2dnUVZ8s2dnZ2d [at] giganews.com...
> "Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
> news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>> ****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
>> Home Draw
>> Away
>> Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
>> West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>
>> Ryan 24
>
> AllMyYouks on a Aston Villa - Spurs double pretty please.
LMAO, Lamo.
This is very, very funny.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: - Week 38 odds [message #1017550 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 10:19 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
> Bolton v Birmingham (15:00 BST) 1.66 3.8 7.1
556 Youks on a Bolton win, please, Joe.
> Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
30 Youks on a draw, please, Joe.
> Mikey 704
I thank you.
Btw, I've had to post this from Google because my news server hates me.
True story. Apologies, therefore, if it shows up more than once.
--
Mike
|
|
|
| Re: - Week 38 odds [message #1017552 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 13:45 |
|
<mikeycunningham [at] gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1146989995.434881.155380 [at] e56g2000cwe.googlegroups.com...
> "Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
> news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>
>> Bolton v Birmingham (15:00 BST) 1.66 3.8 7.1
>
> 556 Youks on a Bolton win, please, Joe.
>
>> Man Utd v Charlton (15:00 BST) 1.26 6 15
>
> 30 Youks on a draw, please, Joe.
>
>> Mikey 704
>
> I thank you.
>
> Btw, I've had to post this from Google because my news server hates me.
> True story. Apologies, therefore, if it shows up more than once.
An excellent set of betcunts, Mr. Cunningham, and one that brings Al Parkes
chance of winning the competition to an end. Well done.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017553 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 14:01 |
|
"Sir Benjamin Nunn" <bennunn [at] depro.co.uk> wrote in message
news:4c444gF143nq3U1 [at] individual.net...
>
> "Ryan" <dooran [at] SPAMblueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
> news:XKOdnfLwU5DcRMHZnZ2dnUVZ8s2dnZ2d [at] giganews.com...
>> "Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
>> news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
>>> ****House Of Hopeful Youks headed paper****
>>> Home Draw
>>> Away
>>> Aston Villa v Sunderland (15:00 BST) 1.61 4.3 7
>>> West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>>
>>> Ryan 24
>>
>> AllMyYouks on a Aston Villa - Spurs double pretty please.
>
>
> LMAO, Lamo.
>
> This is very, very funny.
Mock all you want. I don't see your big hairy balls splurging your wad on
Villa. No that'd be too risky. Well suck on my balls cos Villa are the biz
even though they're fucking wank.
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017554 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 14:08 |
|
"Ryan" <dooran [at] SPAMblueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
news:LqednYDEMOYXfMDZRVnyrA [at] giganews.com...
> Mock all you want. I don't see your big hairy balls splurging your wad on
> Villa. No that'd be too risky. Well suck on my balls cos Villa are the biz
> even though they're fucking wank.
Is it big balls to place a betcunt guaranteed not to win the competition?
Thing is, and I hope I'm not out of order in pointing this out, you placed a
bet that made it *impossible* to finish ahead of Al Parkes, whatever
combination of results came in.
Why?
Mathematically you still had a chance of winning this thing at the time you
placed your betcunt, Ryan. I cannot understand why you didn't take advantage
of it.
FWIW, a Villa betcunt is one of the options still very much available to me.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017555 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 14:52 |
|
"Joe Horowitz" <my_name [at] youblunder.co.youghey> wrote in message
news:ll46g.196440$8Q3.106654 [at] fe1.news.blueyonder.co.uk...
> Home Draw
> Newcastle v Chelsea (15:00 BST) 3.3 3.4 2.4
> Ben 255
60 Youks on the HOME win please, Joe. That is all.
BTN
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017572 ] |
Sun, 07 May 2006 23:59 |
|
Chopsy <msrfx [at] getrid.tiscali.co.uk> wrote in
news:84ek52pnj6lbq8cva1s9cnjlhr7tpvbqta [at] 4ax.com:
>>
>>I know your games Mr Reverse-Psychology.
>
> It hasn't worked so far Os, it hasn't worked so far.
>
Why no, no it hasn't.
--
Cheers, Os
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017593 ] |
Mon, 08 May 2006 08:12 |
|
On Sat, 6 May 2006 17:47:57 +0100, Robert Poleson <sp [at] m.no> wrote:
>On Sat, 06 May 2006 16:21:47 GMT, Joe Horowitz presented this to
>uk.sport.football:
>> "Sir Benjamin Nunn" <bennunn [at] depro.co.uk> wrote in message
>> news:4c3r0dF13g07uU1 [at] individual.net...
>> > Put it this way. When I saw TMAKs actual betcunt I was fucking delighted,
>> > and I suspect Mikey was too.
>>
>> Yes, me too. And I'll maintain to the bitter end that if he loses, he's
>> lost, but if he wins then he'll deserve all the plaudits'n'shit and will
>> have done well. He'll have nearly three thousand youks ffs.
>
>When I saw Tony's bet, hidden in the depths of his 90 line post
>(that was interesting), my initial reaction was, "WTF are you
>playing at, man???"
Yeah, you're all jumping on the bandwagon now, but who was the first
to actually thank him for it...and whilst playing catch up too?
--
Dat
|
|
|
| Re: [SBL 05/06] - Week 38 odds [message #1017598 ] |
Mon, 08 May 2006 08:13 |
|
On Sat, 6 May 2006 18:08:59 +0100, "Sir Benjamin Nunn"
<bennunn [at] depro.co.uk> wrote:
>"Dat" <dat_004 [at] yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
>news:82kp52paclktodko2buef5fherfpv6inrb [at] 4ax.com...
>>>Everton v West Brom (15:00 BST) 1.68 3.6 6.1
>> May I please place 200 on an Eve v WBA draw.
>>
>>>West Ham v Tottenham (15:00 BST) 4.2 3.7 1.96
>> And 105 on a Hammers v Spurs draw as well, your Worship.
>
>Interesting. Very.
Yeah, not enough Everton (thought you'd never hear that, didn't ya?)
and too much Tottenham. It's all fucking ruined now and I'll have to
start again.
--
Dat
|
|
|
Gehe zu:
aktuelle Zeit: Thu Jan 8 16:29:35 CET 2009
Insgesamt benötigte Zeit, um die Seite zu erzeugen: 0.24543 Sekunden |
