| Probabilities Of Finishes In ACC Tournament [message #875900] |
Fri, 10 March 2006 06:28 |
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Below are the odds of each team
reaching each round of the ACC Tournament.
Semifinals
UNC 88.5%
Duke 78.0%
NCSU 71.5%
BC 61.1%
Maryland 38.9%
Wake 28.5%
Miami 22.0%
Virginia 11.5%
Finals
UNC 71.3%
Duke 60.8%
NCSU 23.4%
BC 16.7%
Miami 11.2%
Maryland 7.6%
Wake 4.6%
Virginia 4.3%
Champions
UNC 43.4%
Duke 35.7%
NCSU 8.4%
BC 5.5%
Miami 3.5%
Maryland 1.8%
Wake 0.9%
Virginia 0.9%
--
"It is always a simple matter to drag people along whether it is a
democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist
dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the
bidding of the leaders. This is easy. All you have to do is tell them
they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of
patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every
country."
-Hermann Goering
George W. Harris For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'.
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| Re: Probabilities Of Finishes In ACC Tournament [message #875907 ] |
Fri, 10 March 2006 13:43 |
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How do you come up with these numbers? The must be based on the last
3 games of the regular season. They seem to favor UNC excessively
compared with the betting markets and the Sagarin ratings.
This stat monkey thows his feces at you!
George W Harris wrote:
> Below are the odds of each team
> reaching each round of the ACC Tournament.
>
> Semifinals
>
> UNC 88.5%
> Duke 78.0%
> NCSU 71.5%
> BC 61.1%
> Maryland 38.9%
> Wake 28.5%
> Miami 22.0%
> Virginia 11.5%
>
> Finals
>
> UNC 71.3%
> Duke 60.8%
> NCSU 23.4%
> BC 16.7%
> Miami 11.2%
> Maryland 7.6%
> Wake 4.6%
> Virginia 4.3%
>
> Champions
>
> UNC 43.4%
> Duke 35.7%
> NCSU 8.4%
> BC 5.5%
> Miami 3.5%
> Maryland 1.8%
> Wake 0.9%
> Virginia 0.9%
>
> --
> "It is always a simple matter to drag people along whether it is a
> democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist
> dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the
> bidding of the leaders. This is easy. All you have to do is tell them
> they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of
> patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every
> country."
> -Hermann Goering
>
> George W. Harris For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'.
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| Re: Probabilities Of Finishes In ACC Tournament [message #875924 ] |
Fri, 10 March 2006 17:04 |
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On 10 Mar 2006 04:43:07 -0800, "Mr. Poologic.com"
<tadamsmar [at] yahoo.com> wrote:
:How do you come up with these numbers? The must be based on the last
:3 games of the regular season. They seem to favor UNC excessively
:compared with the betting markets and the Sagarin ratings.
I use my power ratings, and then calculate the
odds of each team winning each game assuming a normal
distribution of results with a sd of 11.
:
:This stat monkey thows his feces at you!
Typical Tarhole behavior.
--
They say there's air in your lungs that's been there for years.
George W. Harris For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'.
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| Re: Probabilities Of Finishes In ACC Tournament [message #875977 ] |
Sat, 11 March 2006 05:44 |
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George W Harris wrote:
> On 10 Mar 2006 04:43:07 -0800, "Mr. Poologic.com"
> <tadamsmar [at] yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> :How do you come up with these numbers? The must be based on the last
> :3 games of the regular season. They seem to favor UNC excessively
> :compared with the betting markets and the Sagarin ratings.
>
> I use my power ratings, and then calculate the
> odds of each team winning each game assuming a normal
> distribution of results with a sd of 11.
I think he forgets that you only account for ACC games. A lot of Duke's
"power" comes from wins over OOC opponents.
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