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Sports » rec.sport.basketball.pro » Kobe makes his teammates better
| Kobe makes his teammates better [message #808805] |
Wed, 18 January 2006 05:52 |
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http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm
Imagine a team that owns, at the same time, both the NBA's best defense and
its worst offense. This scrappy bunch of overachievers, not blessed with a
ton of offensive talent, nonetheless manages to stay in most games before
falling just short.
This team exists not just in your imagination but in reality - sort of. This
team is the 2005-06 Los Angeles Lakers, sans Kobe Bryant. Through Friday,
this Web site's database indicated that, without Bryant in the game, the
Lakers were scoring at a rate of just 90.2 points per 100 possessions while
surrendering just 95.7 points per 100 possessions. No full NBA team is
scoring less than 100 points per 100 possessions; the only team with a
Defensive Rating below 100 is San Antonio (99.6).
You might think this is a common effect for a team with its superstar off
the floor, but the Bryant-less Lakers take this to an extreme. Bryant's
presence has been worth 22.0 points per 100 possessions to the Lakers
offense this season, far and away the biggest difference made on offense by
any NBA player:
Players Tm Diff
---------------------
Bryant LAL +22.0
Wade MIA +17.0
Szczerbiak MIN +15.0
Howard ORL +14.9
Nowitzki DAL +14.9
Last year, Steve Nash led the NBA with a 17.6 difference in Offensive
Rating, so what Bryant is doing is rather remarkable. It's also probably not
as dramatic as it seems, given that Bryant is usually out of the game for
short stretches -- he's averaging 40.4 minutes per game -- and often with
other starters also on the bench.
When Bryant missed two games because he was suspended for elbowing Memphis'
Mike Miller in the throat, the Lakers offense struggled, but faired better
than it has overall, scoring at a rate of 103.1 points per 100
possessions -- still well below their mark of 112.2 points with Bryant. (It
was the defense, which surrendered 113.8 points per 100 possesssions, that
really let the Lakers down as they lost both games to the Jazz.)
No matter what measure you use, Bryant's importance to the Lakers offense is
evident. Yet this hasn't silenced critics that demean Bryant as a ballhog.
To the extent that the term is defined as a player who shoots a lot, it is
inarguable. Bryant is attempting an amazing 39.4% of the Lakers' shots while
on the court this season, twice as many as an average player. Tracy McGrady
(35.6%) is second in terms of percentage of his teams shots and only 15
other players are attempting even 30%.
Bryant's so-so efficiency makes it tempting to label him a ballhog. After
all, his True Shooting Percentage of 54.1% is lower than fellow Lakers
starters Lamar Odom (54.9%), Smush Parker (55.3%) and Chris Mihm (56.4%) as
well as occasional starter Brian Cook (57.6%). It's also scarcely above the
league average of 53.2%.
While I'm a big believer in the importance of True Shooting Percentage, it
doesn't tell a complete story. For one, it ignores the role of turnovers.
Bryant's turnover rate is in the NBA's top 15. If we look at points scored
per possessions used (FGA + (.44*FTA) + TO), Bryant -- who averages 98.8
points per 100 possessions -- shoots past every Lakers regular save Cook
(103.8) in terms of efficiency. Still, this alone is not enough to explain
Bryant's dramatic impact on the Lakers offense.
For that, we have to look deeper into Bryant's on-court/off-court statistics
available on this site to take a look at how his presence has affected the
performance of his teammates. Of the 10 other Lakers who have played at
least 100 minutes this season, only two -- Mihm and reserve forward Devean
George -- have shot a lower field-goal percentage with Bryant on the court.
We can take this a step forward by going to the points per 100 possessions
rating I referenced earlier, which takes into account the extra turnovers
other players pick up with Bryant on the bench. Here is how the Lakers
regulars' Offensive Ratings look with and without Bryant:
Player with w/o diff
-----------------------------
Brown 76.8 68.5 + 8.3
Bynum 66.9 49.5 +17.4
Cook 104.6 100.9 + 3.8
George 92.0 80.2 +11.8
Mihm 96.4 81.1 +15.3
Odom 92.9 91.9 + 1.0
Parker 100.5 73.3 +27.2
Profit 90.5 86.1 + 4.4
Vujacic 95.9 72.7 +23.2
Walton 81.2 64.2 +17.0
Remarkably, every single player has improved his Offensive Rating, if only
by a little in a couple of cases. However, Parker and his backup, Sasha
Vujacic, have seen their efficiency cut into by about a quarter when Bryant
leaves the court.
George is a particularly interesting case that illustrates why field-goal
percentage is not sufficient to address this issue. While George's
field-goal percentage has basically been the same with and without Bryant,
his Offensive Rating drops dramatically without Bryant. George hits twice as
many 3s per field goal with Bryant on the court, and turns the ball over
far, far less. He has just eight turnovers in 433 minutes when teamed with
Bryant, 13 in 236 by himself.
Is it possible that other players make this kind of difference? Perhaps, but
a glance at the statistics with and without other key offensive players,
including Nash and Shaquille O'Neal from last year, reveals a less
consistent pattern. Nash, for example, had a major influence of the shooting
of Amaré Stoudemire -- perhaps adding context to Stoudemire's "breakout"
season -- but had no effect on Shawn Marion.
Without Bryant using as many possessions as he does, the Lakers become a
much more balanced team on offense. Here's how their percentage of
possessions used compare with and without Bryant on the court:
Player with w/o diff
---------------------------
Brown 12.2 21.4 + 9.2
Bynum 11.2 27.6 +16.4
Cook 17.5 17.0 - 0.5
George 12.6 20.5 + 7.9
Mihm 17.6 24.6 + 7.0
Odom 17.3 24.4 + 7.0
Parker 16.0 19.3 + 3.3
Profit 16.4 23.0 + 6.7
Vujacic 10.1 14.4 + 4.2
Walton 14.2 17.9 + 3.7
It's a bit surprising that Odom hasn't stepped forward as more of a go-to
player with Bryant off the court. While he's never been an aggressive
player, Odom used about as many possessions in 2003-04 in Miami despite
playing with Dwyane Wade. He's probably got the capability to step up his
role in the offense even more.
I see the difference in his teammates' performance with and without Bryant
as relating to the age-old notion that a player can "make his teammates
better." To many APBRmetricians, that line of thinking is anathema, but I've
always had more problem with the haphazard manner in which the claim has
been used to denigrate star players blessed with untalented teammates than
the concept itself. It's theoretically obvious that playing with a star
player should help a player's statistics. Not only does it produce more open
shots because of double-teams drawn by the star, it also forces the teammate
to take fewer contested shots because of being asked to create his own shot.
Kurt from the definitive Lakers blog, Forum Blue and Gold, sees the other
Lakers adjusting to and playing off of Bryant much better recently.
"Brian Cook has developed a very consistent outside shot since he came into
the league, so you have started to see him run a pick-and-pop with Kobe that
works well. Parker and Vujacic are figuring out where to be to get kickout
passes. Mihm in particular but also the much-maligned Brown have started to
find good spacing under the basket when Kobe penetrates, leading to them
getting easy baskets off passes or putbacks on misses.
"Regular Laker watchers have long thought Kobe does make his teammates
better - did you see the year Chucky Atkins had in 2004-05?"
Really, you can't look at statistics to determine whether a player is a
ballhog. Like pornography as defined by Supreme Court Justice Potter
Stewart, I know a ballhog when I see one. Given the positive effect Bryant
has had on his teammates, it seems to me that the amount Bryant is shooting
is not only not hurting the Lakers, it's the reason for the team's offensive
success. Considering how much Bryant has helped his teammates, they
certainly can't complain.
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| Re: Kobe makes his teammates better [message #808948 ] |
Thu, 26 January 2006 18:51 |
|
s_knight8 wrote:
> http://www.82games.com/pelton13.htm
>
> Imagine a team that owns, at the same time, both the NBA's best defense a=
nd
> its worst offense. This scrappy bunch of overachievers, not blessed with a
> ton of offensive talent, nonetheless manages to stay in most games before
> falling just short.
>
> This team exists not just in your imagination but in reality - sort of. T=
his
> team is the 2005-06 Los Angeles Lakers, sans Kobe Bryant. Through Friday,
> this Web site's database indicated that, without Bryant in the game, the
> Lakers were scoring at a rate of just 90.2 points per 100 possessions whi=
le
> surrendering just 95.7 points per 100 possessions. No full NBA team is
> scoring less than 100 points per 100 possessions; the only team with a
> Defensive Rating below 100 is San Antonio (99.6).
>
> You might think this is a common effect for a team with its superstar off
> the floor, but the Bryant-less Lakers take this to an extreme. Bryant's
> presence has been worth 22.0 points per 100 possessions to the Lakers
> offense this season, far and away the biggest difference made on offense =
by
> any NBA player:
>
>
> Players Tm Diff
> ---------------------
> Bryant LAL +22.0
> Wade MIA +17.0
> Szczerbiak MIN +15.0
> Howard ORL +14.9
> Nowitzki DAL +14.9
> Last year, Steve Nash led the NBA with a 17.6 difference in Offensive
> Rating, so what Bryant is doing is rather remarkable. It's also probably =
not
> as dramatic as it seems, given that Bryant is usually out of the game for
> short stretches -- he's averaging 40.4 minutes per game -- and often with
> other starters also on the bench.
>
> When Bryant missed two games because he was suspended for elbowing Memphi=
s'
> Mike Miller in the throat, the Lakers offense struggled, but faired better
> than it has overall, scoring at a rate of 103.1 points per 100
> possessions -- still well below their mark of 112.2 points with Bryant. (=
It
> was the defense, which surrendered 113.8 points per 100 possesssions, that
> really let the Lakers down as they lost both games to the Jazz.)
>
> No matter what measure you use, Bryant's importance to the Lakers offense=
is
> evident. Yet this hasn't silenced critics that demean Bryant as a ballhog.
> To the extent that the term is defined as a player who shoots a lot, it is
> inarguable. Bryant is attempting an amazing 39.4% of the Lakers' shots wh=
ile
> on the court this season, twice as many as an average player. Tracy McGra=
dy
> (35.6%) is second in terms of percentage of his teams shots and only 15
> other players are attempting even 30%.
>
> Bryant's so-so efficiency makes it tempting to label him a ballhog. After
> all, his True Shooting Percentage of 54.1% is lower than fellow Lakers
> starters Lamar Odom (54.9%), Smush Parker (55.3%) and Chris Mihm (56.4%) =
as
> well as occasional starter Brian Cook (57.6%). It's also scarcely above t=
he
> league average of 53.2%.
>
> While I'm a big believer in the importance of True Shooting Percentage, it
> doesn't tell a complete story. For one, it ignores the role of turnovers.
> Bryant's turnover rate is in the NBA's top 15. If we look at points scored
> per possessions used (FGA + (.44*FTA) + TO), Bryant -- who averages 98.8
> points per 100 possessions -- shoots past every Lakers regular save Cook
> (103.8) in terms of efficiency. Still, this alone is not enough to explain
> Bryant's dramatic impact on the Lakers offense.
>
> For that, we have to look deeper into Bryant's on-court/off-court statist=
ics
> available on this site to take a look at how his presence has affected the
> performance of his teammates. Of the 10 other Lakers who have played at
> least 100 minutes this season, only two -- Mihm and reserve forward Devean
> George -- have shot a lower field-goal percentage with Bryant on the cour=
t=2E
>
> We can take this a step forward by going to the points per 100 possessions
> rating I referenced earlier, which takes into account the extra turnovers
> other players pick up with Bryant on the bench. Here is how the Lakers
> regulars' Offensive Ratings look with and without Bryant:
>
>
> Player with w/o diff
> -----------------------------
> Brown 76.8 68.5 + 8.3
> Bynum 66.9 49.5 +17.4
> Cook 104.6 100.9 + 3.8
> George 92.0 80.2 +11.8
> Mihm 96.4 81.1 +15.3
> Odom 92.9 91.9 + 1.0
> Parker 100.5 73.3 +27.2
> Profit 90.5 86.1 + 4.4
> Vujacic 95.9 72.7 +23.2
> Walton 81.2 64.2 +17.0
> Remarkably, every single player has improved his Offensive Rating, if only
> by a little in a couple of cases. However, Parker and his backup, Sasha
> Vujacic, have seen their efficiency cut into by about a quarter when Brya=
nt
> leaves the court.
>
> George is a particularly interesting case that illustrates why field-goal
> percentage is not sufficient to address this issue. While George's
> field-goal percentage has basically been the same with and without Bryant,
> his Offensive Rating drops dramatically without Bryant. George hits twice=
as
> many 3s per field goal with Bryant on the court, and turns the ball over
> far, far less. He has just eight turnovers in 433 minutes when teamed with
> Bryant, 13 in 236 by himself.
>
> Is it possible that other players make this kind of difference? Perhaps, =
but
> a glance at the statistics with and without other key offensive players,
> including Nash and Shaquille O'Neal from last year, reveals a less
> consistent pattern. Nash, for example, had a major influence of the shoot=
ing
> of Amar=E9 Stoudemire -- perhaps adding context to Stoudemire's "breakout"
> season -- but had no effect on Shawn Marion.
>
> Without Bryant using as many possessions as he does, the Lakers become a
> much more balanced team on offense. Here's how their percentage of
> possessions used compare with and without Bryant on the court:
>
>
> Player with w/o diff
> ---------------------------
> Brown 12.2 21.4 + 9.2
> Bynum 11.2 27.6 +16.4
> Cook 17.5 17.0 - 0.5
> George 12.6 20.5 + 7.9
> Mihm 17.6 24.6 + 7.0
> Odom 17.3 24.4 + 7.0
> Parker 16.0 19.3 + 3.3
> Profit 16.4 23.0 + 6.7
> Vujacic 10.1 14.4 + 4.2
> Walton 14.2 17.9 + 3.7
> It's a bit surprising that Odom hasn't stepped forward as more of a go-to
> player with Bryant off the court. While he's never been an aggressive
> player, Odom used about as many possessions in 2003-04 in Miami despite
> playing with Dwyane Wade. He's probably got the capability to step up his
> role in the offense even more.
>
> I see the difference in his teammates' performance with and without Bryant
> as relating to the age-old notion that a player can "make his teammates
> better." To many APBRmetricians, that line of thinking is anathema, but I=
've
> always had more problem with the haphazard manner in which the claim has
> been used to denigrate star players blessed with untalented teammates than
> the concept itself. It's theoretically obvious that playing with a star
> player should help a player's statistics. Not only does it produce more o=
pen
> shots because of double-teams drawn by the star, it also forces the teamm=
ate
> to take fewer contested shots because of being asked to create his own sh=
ot.
>
> Kurt from the definitive Lakers blog, Forum Blue and Gold, sees the other
> Lakers adjusting to and playing off of Bryant much better recently.
>
> "Brian Cook has developed a very consistent outside shot since he came in=
to
> the league, so you have started to see him run a pick-and-pop with Kobe t=
hat
> works well. Parker and Vujacic are figuring out where to be to get kickout
> passes. Mihm in particular but also the much-maligned Brown have started =
to
> find good spacing under the basket when Kobe penetrates, leading to them
> getting easy baskets off passes or putbacks on misses.
>
> "Regular Laker watchers have long thought Kobe does make his teammates
> better - did you see the year Chucky Atkins had in 2004-05?"
>
> Really, you can't look at statistics to determine whether a player is a
> ballhog. Like pornography as defined by Supreme Court Justice Potter
> Stewart, I know a ballhog when I see one. Given the positive effect Bryant
> has had on his teammates, it seems to me that the amount Bryant is shooti=
ng
> is not only not hurting the Lakers, it's the reason for the team's offens=
ive
> success. Considering how much Bryant has helped his teammates, they
> certainly can't complain.
There's nothing surprising here in terms of FG percentages and Lakers
players with and without Bryant (this is the reason why, in the other
thread, I used Odom stats w/ Bryant only). My argument has been, since
Lakers players benefit from the double teams Bryant is drawing, why not
pass to them more, rather than selfishly hawking up shots when double
and triple teamed.
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